Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) on 2025-09-19

• Price closed higher at 3.619, up from 3.605, showing a 24-hour gain of ~0.39%.
• Volatility increased, with price swinging between 3.597 and 3.623.
• Volume spiked in the afternoon (ET) as USDCPLN approached key resistance levels.
• RSI suggests moderate momentum, while MACD shows bullish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands reflect moderate expansion, with price near the upper band in the final hours.

The 24-hour session for USDC/Zloty (ticker: USDCPLN) opened at 3.605 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.619 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 3.623 and a low of 3.597, with total volume of 1,189,148.5 units traded and an estimated turnover of PLN 388,500.

1. Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bullish breakout above the key resistance at 3.61, which was previously a level of containment. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed in the late afternoon, confirming the shift in sentiment. Key support levels include 3.605 and 3.601, with the latter showing recurring price action. A bearish doji appeared near 3.598 in the early morning, hinting at temporary indecision, but buyers retook control by early afternoon.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the price closed above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line, forming a golden cross, which reinforces the upward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average is approaching the 100-period line, suggesting potential for a crossover that could confirm a longer-term uptrend.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during midday, confirming the bullish momentum. The histogram showed increasing positive divergence, especially in the hours before the close. RSI rose into overbought territory (above 65) in the afternoon but did not close in extreme overbought (above 75), suggesting room for further gains without immediate correction risk. RSI remains well above the 50 level, indicating continued buyer control.

4. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after a morning consolidation phase, reflecting increased volatility. Price action spent much of the day near or above the upper band, indicating strong buying pressure. A contraction in the morning preceded the breakout, suggesting a potential reversal setup that was indeed confirmed by the price action.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume saw a significant spike during the afternoon hours, particularly as price approached 3.62, reaching 71,219 units traded in one 15-minute interval. Notional turnover confirmed the bullish move, with higher trading value aligning with rising prices. There was no notable divergence between volume and price action, supporting the strength of the trend. However, volume dipped in the late evening, suggesting caution as the pair approached critical resistance.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 3.597 to 3.623, key levels were 3.609 (38.2%), 3.615 (50%), and 3.618 (61.8%). Price paused at 3.618 before continuing upward, suggesting strong interest at these levels. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from a prior downtrend suggest a potential pullback target at 3.601 (61.8%), but the current upward move appears to be taking out these levels with relative ease.

7. Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy is based on identifying a golden cross on the 20/50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI above 50 and increasing volume. The hypothesis suggests entering long positions at the close of the candle confirming the crossover, with a stop-loss placed below the 3.601 support level and a target at 3.625, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This setup could be backtested for the last 30 days to assess its profitability, risk-reward ratio, and win rate in a range-bound and trending environment.