Market Overview for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) – 2025-09-15

• Price declined from a high of 3.617 to 3.602 over 24 hours amid moderate volatility.
• Key support appeared at 3.602–3.604, with rejection forming multiple times.
• Volume increased significantly in the afternoon before tapering off at close.
• RSI remained neutral, but MACD showed bearish divergence in the latter half.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the final hours, signaling potential for a breakout.

The 24-hour session for USDC/Zloty (USDCPLN) saw a moderate bearish trend, opening at 3.607 on 2025-09-14 12:00 ET and peaking at 3.617 before closing at 3.602 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET. Total volume was 782,350 units, with notional turnover reaching approximately 2,744,000 Zloty. Price action was characterized by a series of bearish consolidations and a late-day rally that failed to hold.

Structure & Formations

Price tested and held key support at 3.602–3.604 multiple times, with bearish rejection candles and a failed bullish attempt at 3.616–3.617 indicating a potential short-term bottom. A small bullish engulfing pattern occurred briefly at 3.611–3.614, but it was quickly invalidated by a bearish reversal at the same level. A doji near 3.612 also signaled indecision and potential reversal. These patterns suggest a consolidation phase with a likely continuation of the downward trend if 3.602 is breached.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed near the 20-period moving average at 3.608 and just below the 50-period MA at 3.610, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish bias in the short term. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) were not directly calculable from the 15-minute OHLCV data, but based on prior trends, the 50-day MA likely sits above the current level, suggesting a longer-term bearish tone. The price is currently below its key short-term moving averages, supporting the bearish case.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hovered around 50 throughout most of the session, indicating a balanced market with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. The MACD, however, showed a bearish divergence in the afternoon as price peaked but the indicator continued to decline, signaling weakening momentum. A bearish crossover occurred shortly after 20:00 ET, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated in the early part of the session, with price frequently testing the upper and lower bands. By the close, the bands had contracted significantly, particularly in the last three hours, indicating a potential breakout. Price closed near the lower band at 3.602, with a narrow band width suggesting increased likelihood of a reversal or sharp movement in either direction.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume showed a significant increase during the afternoon hours, particularly between 16:00–19:30 ET, with spikes in turnover coinciding with bearish moves. This volume confirmed the bearish momentum. However, in the final hours, volume dropped sharply despite a minor price rebound, which could indicate fading interest and limited upside potential. Divergence between price and volume suggested a lack of conviction behind the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 3.617 to 3.602, the 38.2% retracement level at 3.610 was tested but failed to hold. The 61.8% level at 3.604 became a key support and was held multiple times. Looking at the broader daily move, a retracement back to 3.602–3.603 is now a likely target for further consolidation before a directional move is expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price behavior and technical structure, a potential backtesting strategy could be constructed using a combination of MACD crossovers and key support levels. The bearish MACD crossover around 20:00 ET, coupled with a failed bullish attempt at 3.616, suggests that a short entry at 3.611 with a stop above 3.616 and a target at 3.602 could be historically viable. This approach leverages both the momentum signal and the structural support identified by the Fibonacci and candlestick patterns. Future testing would need to validate the effectiveness of this signal in similar market conditions and account for the low liquidity periods seen in the latter half of the session.