Market Overview for USDC/Zloty on 2025-10-22

• USDC/Zloty edged lower on elevated volume, with bearish momentum signaling potential pullback.
• Price remained within a narrow range during the early hours, consolidating around 3.656–3.658.
• Midday saw a bearish breakout below key support at 3.654, confirming a short-term shift in sentiment.
• Volatility surged following the 15-minute RSI breach of oversold levels, hinting at potential reversal.
• Final hour saw a modest recovery but failed to reclaim critical psychological resistance at 3.66.

The USDC/Zloty pair opened at 3.659 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.655 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 3.66 and a low of 3.645. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 905,213, while turnover (notional value) reached approximately $2,713,323. The pair experienced a moderate downtrend, with bearish momentum dominating the second half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish consolidation pattern early in the session, forming a narrow range between 3.654 and 3.658. Key support levels at 3.654 and 3.652 were tested multiple times, with the 3.654 level eventually being broken after a decisive bearish candle at 22:45 ET. This formed a bearish breakdown structure, indicating a shift in short-term sentiment. A small bearish engulfing pattern confirmed the breakdown, while several doji candles suggested indecision in the early hours.

Moving Averages

Using 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, price remained below both lines for the majority of the session, indicating a bearish bias. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA late in the session, forming a death cross that reinforced the bearish outlook. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period MAs were both above the current price, reinforcing the long-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram displayed a bearish divergence late in the session, with price making higher lows while the histogram made lower lows, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. The RSI crossed below the 30-level at 02:15 ET, indicating oversold conditions and potentially setting up for a short-term bounce. However, the rebound failed to produce a strong reversal, with price eventually settling slightly below the 3.655 mark.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with the volatility tightening as the session progressed. A brief contraction was observed between 04:00 and 06:00 ET before a sudden expansion as the price broke below the lower band. This signaled an increase in volatility and a bearish breakout, with the lower band acting as a dynamic support-turned-resistance. The final hour showed price attempting to re-enter the bands but failing to close above the middle line, indicating a lack of conviction in the recovery.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 07:00–09:00 ET window as price pushed higher to 3.664, followed by a bearish pullback. This suggests increased buying pressure but failed follow-through from bullish participants. The largest notional turnover occurred during the 08:30–08:45 ET window when price reached 3.661. However, divergence between volume and price action in the final hour suggested that the recovery lacked strong institutional support.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 3.654 to 3.664, price found support at the 61.8% level (around 3.656) before breaking below it. This suggests that bears were able to capitalize on the failed bullish attempt. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level of the recent move from 3.645 to 3.661 is at 3.653, which has already acted as a key support level. A failure to hold this level could see price retest the 3.645 level next.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and RSI oversold signal, one potential backtest hypothesis involves entering a long position when the 15-minute RSI dips below 30 and price reclaims the 3.655 level. Holding for 3 days and exiting at the next 3-day RSI overbought threshold (RSI > 70) could provide a short-term reversal play. While the current data feed for “HOLD.P” is unavailable, this strategy could be tested using USDCPLN or an alternative ticker with sufficient data coverage, such as BTC/PLN, to validate the RSI-based reversal approach for similar volatile assets.