Market Overview for USDC/Tether (USDCUSDT): October 10, 2025

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• Price action remained range-bound, with USDCUSDT trading between 0.9992 and 0.9997.
• RSI neutral at mid-levels, suggesting balanced buying and selling pressure.
• Volatility surged during 16:00–17:00 ET on 2025-10-09 but normalized after.
• No significant divergence between price and volume over the past 24 hours.
• 15-minute MACD indicated a bearish crossover during the overnight session.

USDC/Tether (USDCUSDT) opened at 0.9994 on October 9, 2025 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.9997, falling to a low of 0.9992 before closing at 0.9995 on October 10, 2025 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 654,991,410, with notional turnover estimated at ~$653.7 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart remained within a tight range between 0.9992 and 0.9997, with no decisive breakouts. A few bearish pinocchio candles appeared around 19:15 ET and 05:15 ET, suggesting short-term bearish bias. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 04:30 ET, indicating a potential short-term reversal. However, the absence of strong follow-through limited its impact. Key support levels held at 0.9993 and 0.9992, with resistance seen at 0.9995 and 0.9997.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged near 0.9994, with price hovering around this level for much of the day. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was near 0.9994, slightly above the 100-period and 200-period MAs. This indicates a neutral-to-bullish bias in the short term, with price likely to remain close to the 20–50 MA cluster over the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative during the overnight session, with a bearish crossover occurring around 04:00 ET. However, it returned to positive territory by morning. The RSI moved between 50 and 60, suggesting balanced momentum with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. Price consolidation and a lack of strong divergences indicate a continuation of the range in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in the morning, followed by a slight expansion during the afternoon session. Price spent most of the day within the one-standard-deviation range of the 20-period moving average. A few candles brushed the upper band around 0.9997 and the lower band near 0.9992, suggesting increasing volatility toward the end of the session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked between 19:15 and 05:15 ET, coinciding with a bearish price move. These spikes were confirmed by the price action, suggesting valid bearish pressure. A divergence in volume and price was observed around 04:30 ET, where price surged despite a moderate volume increase, potentially signaling a short-term exhaustion of bullish momentum. Total turnover remained in line with volume, indicating no unusual concentration of activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.9992 to 0.9997, the 0.618 (0.9995) and 0.382 (0.9994) levels were frequently tested. The 0.618 level held as a key support/resistance zone, with price fluctuating around it multiple times. On the daily chart, the 0.618 level from the prior month’s swing is near 0.9993, aligning with recent key support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy emphasizes trend-following and momentum-based entries using a combination of EMA crossovers, RSI divergence, and volume confirmation. Over the past 24 hours, the EMA 20/50 crossover occurred multiple times, but no clear trend emerged. RSI showed no strong overbought or oversold readings, and volume did not confirm any clear breakouts. A potential entry point for the strategy would be a retest of the 0.9995 resistance with a bullish EMA crossover and increasing volume. However, the lack of a defined trend and weak divergence suggest a conservative approach may be warranted.