Market Overview: USDC/Romanian Leu (USDCRON) Daily Summary (2025-10-10)

• • •
• USDC/Romanian Leu declined from 4.406 to 4.384 over 24 hours, ending near recent support.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed near 4.402–4.406, with volume confirming weakness in the final 6 hours.
• Volatility remained elevated, with a range of ~0.022 RON, but price remains above 4.380 support.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Turnover increased in the morning but waned in the afternoon, indicating reduced selling pressure.

Opening Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, USDC/Romanian Leu (USDCRON) opened at 4.400 RON and traded between 4.378 and 4.414 RON over the next 24 hours. At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, the price closed at 4.384 RON, down 0.022 RON from the prior day. Total volume reached 138,738.0 units of USDC, with a notional turnover of ~597,644 RON, based on the weighted average price.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish inside bar pattern at 19:15–19:30 ET and a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:45–20:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. A bearish doji formed at 20:45–21:00 ET near 4.394, indicating indecision. Key support levels were observed at 4.380 and 4.385, while resistance emerged at 4.396 and 4.402.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover, with the price below both. The 200-period MA on the daily chart remains flat, indicating no strong long-term bias. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is slowly descending but hasn’t yet crossed below the 200-period MA.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative in the final 6 hours, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped to ~33, entering oversold territory. While this could signal a near-term bounce, a sustained close above 4.400 is required for a bullish reversal. The RSI histogram has been contracting, suggesting potential for a rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a moderate contraction during midday and an expansion in the late afternoon. Price remained within the bands but approached the lower band at 4.380–4.385 RON, suggesting a possible bounce. The current volatility is moderate, and a break above the 4.396–4.402 level could trigger a retesting of the upper band.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume occurred at 19:15–19:30 ET (20,282 units of USDC), which coincided with the bearish reversal to 4.402. Notional turnover was high in the late afternoon but waned in the last 6 hours. Divergence between volume and price in the last 6 hours suggests reduced selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 4.406 to 4.378, key retracement levels are at 4.387 (38.2%), 4.392 (50%), and 4.396 (61.8%). Price is currently testing the 38.2% retracement and may find support there. A break below 4.380 would trigger a move toward 4.368 on the daily chart.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry when the 15-minute RSI enters oversold territory (<35) and the price closes below the 20-period MA, with a stop above the previous candle’s high and a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level (38.2%). Conversely, a long entry could be triggered if price retests the 4.387 level with confirmation via bullish engulfing or strong volume, with a target at the 50% retracement (4.392). This approach leverages momentum divergence and price action signals to capture short-term mean reversion opportunities.