Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC): Volatility and Bearish Momentum in 24-Hour Action

• Four/USDC declined 9.06% over 24 hours, hitting a low of $0.7274 before rebounding slightly.
• Price broke below a key 0.74–0.75 consolidation range, with bearish momentum visible in RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility spiked mid-day, with turnover reaching $4.2M at the 0.74–0.745 level, suggesting short-term stabilization.
• A 15-minute engulfing pattern at 05:00 ET hinted at a potential short-term rebound, but bearish bias remains intact.
• A 50/20 MA crossover on the 15-minute chart confirmed the downward trend, with price below both moving averages.

Four/USDC opened at $0.8108 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.7463 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, registering a low of $0.7274 and a high of $0.8244. Total 24-hour volume was approximately 308,030 units, with total turnover reaching $222,500. The price action reflects a strong bearish bias, with multiple key support levels tested and broken.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a sharp bearish breakdown from a key consolidation range between $0.74 and $0.75, with a notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern at 05:00 ET signaling a short-term reversal in favor of sellers. A doji at 03:45 ET also marked a brief pause in the downward move. A critical support level at $0.745 was tested multiple times and ultimately broken, suggesting further downside potential. Notable resistance remains at $0.79–0.80, where price previously struggled to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, both 20 and 50-period moving averages are below price, confirming the bearish trend. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA earlier in the 24-hour window, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA has also crossed below the 100-day MA, reinforcing the medium-term bearish sentiment. Price remains well below the 200-day MA, indicating a lack of bullish conviction in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI fell below 30 on several occasions during the 24-hour window, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to produce a meaningful rebound. This divergence suggests that bearish momentum remains strong. The MACD line also stayed negative throughout the period, with bearish crossovers amplifying the likelihood of continued selling pressure. The MACD histogram expanded during the late hours of the session, reinforcing the bearish thesis.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price broke through the lower Bollinger Band toward $0.7274. The bands were relatively narrow before the sharp decline, indicating a potential breakout. Price now sits near the lower band again, which could serve as a short-term support. A sustained break below this level could trigger further volatility and push the price toward the next key support at $0.7250.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at $0.74–0.745, where traders showed increased interest during the afternoon and evening hours. This coincided with a temporary price rebound, suggesting accumulation from short-term buyers. However, turnover diverged from price, with volume rising despite further declines in the final hours, indicating a lack of conviction from buyers. The divergence highlights the fragile nature of the current support and the strong bearish sentiment dominating the market.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent bearish move from $0.8244 to $0.7274, key levels at 0.744 (38.2%), 0.756 (50%), and 0.768 (61.8%) have all been tested. The 38.2% level at $0.744 acted as a temporary floor, with price bouncing off multiple times. A break below this level could bring the next key support at $0.7323 into play, which is currently aligned with the 20-period moving average. The 61.8% level at $0.768 is now a potential resistance if a short-term rebound occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup and key support levels identified, a plausible backtesting strategy could be to enter a short position when price closes below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.744, with a stop-loss just above $0.75 (the 50% level). A holding period of 10 trading days, or until price breaks back above $0.768 (the 61.8% level), would be suitable for this bearish scenario. This strategy would be based on a common technical rule: using Fibonacci retracement levels and price confirmation to time entries. The recent RSI divergence and MACD bearish crossover further justify the short-biased approach.