Market Overview for Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) – October 9, 2025

• FORMUSDC opened at 1.3835, reached 1.6440, and closed at 1.2683 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• A sharp 15-minute drop after 06:30 ET pushed price below key support levels and triggered heavy selling.
• RSI hit oversold levels, but volume divergence suggests bearish continuation may be likely.
• Volatility surged during the session peak before tapering off, indicating consolidation.
• Price is now near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent high-to-low move, a key technical level.

FORMUSDC opened at 1.3835 on October 8 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.2683 the following day at the same time, reaching a high of 1.6440 and a low of 1.1320. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 8,755,994.8, with notional turnover amounting to approximately 11,162,864.4 based on the amount field. The price action was marked by a strong upward breakout early in the session, followed by a sharp reversal and a prolonged bearish consolidation.

The structure of the price action indicates multiple key levels. The 1.6440 high appears to be a new resistance level, though it was only briefly tested. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed around 06:30 ET after the 1.6440 high, marking a pivotal shift in sentiment. Further down, the 1.2847–1.3107 range acted as a minor support zone multiple times but ultimately failed to hold. A doji formed near 1.2500 and 1.2683, signaling indecision and potential exhaustion in the short term.

Moving averages show the 20-period (15-minute) line crossed below the 50-period line, forming a death cross, confirming bearish momentum in the short term. On a daily chart, the 50-day MA is likely still above 100 and 200-day MAs, but the recent price action has moved well below the 50-day line. This suggests a possible shift in longer-term bias toward the downside.

MACD turned negative after the 06:30 ET reversal and has remained bearish, with the histogram shrinking as momentum slows. RSI hit oversold territory near 30 at the close but failed to bounce above 50, indicating continued bearish pressure. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the initial breakout before contracting, a classic bearish consolidation setup. Price currently sits near the upper Bollinger Band of the contraction phase, suggesting a potential test of the upper limit.

Volume surged during the initial breakout and the sharp decline, with the heaviest turnover recorded during the 06:30–07:00 ET period. A divergence emerged between price and volume during the 09:00–10:00 ET consolidation, with volume declining despite continued downward movement, hinting at weakening bearish conviction. The total turnover also spiked during the initial bearish reversal, confirming the strength of the move.

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart show the 61.8% retracement level at 1.2683, which aligns with the current close price. This level is a critical support area and may attract buying interest if bulls manage to push the price above it. On a daily basis, the 50% retracement of the broader move remains a key psychological level to watch in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy in question involves a combination of RSI divergence, MACD crossover, and volume confirmation to trigger long or short entries. A potential entry could have been identified during the 06:30 ET bearish engulfing candle when RSI was overbought, MACD began to turn negative, and volume spiked sharply. A short entry at that time would have aligned with both the technical indicators and price structure. This setup could be tested using a historical backtester to measure its profitability, false signals, and drawdowns across multiple cycles.