Market Overview for Four/USDC on 2026-01-05

Summary
• Price declined from 0.3986 to 0.3757, with strong bearish momentum in early ET hours.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price trending near the lower band.
• Volume surged in midday ET, but no clear reversal patterns emerged.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.

Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at 0.3933 at 12:00 ET–1, hit a high of 0.3986 and a low of 0.3717, closing at 0.3757 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 200,357.1 and turnover was 74,649.76 USDC, indicating high activity amid declining price.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish trend line with multiple breakdowns under key resistance levels. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 17:00–17:15 ET, followed by a long bearish candle at 18:30 ET that marked a key low. A doji appeared at 11:45 ET, suggesting indecision but without a clear reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the price closed below both 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing a bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA acted as resistance, while the 200-period MA loomed lower, indicating potential for further downside in the near term.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI fell below 30 by the end of the session, indicating oversold conditions that may trigger a short-term bounce. MACD showed a bearish crossover with a declining histogram, reflecting fading momentum. Bollinger Bands narrowed midday but then expanded as volatility increased, with price remaining near the lower band, suggesting a possible retest of the 0.370–0.375 support zone.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the midday sell-off, confirming bearish sentiment. Turnover also increased, aligning with the price drop. However, volume dipped significantly in late ET hours, pointing to weakening conviction in the downward move. Divergences between price and volume suggest traders may soon pause, especially if support holds.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 5-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% retracement level of the previous bull move before falling further. On the daily timeframe, the 38.2% Fibonacci level acted as resistance, and a break below the 61.8% level (0.370–0.375) could target further downside.

The market may consolidate in the next 24 hours as RSI suggests a possible short-term rebound, but a break below 0.3717 could accelerate the downtrend. Traders should remain cautious and monitor volume reactions around key support levels.