Market Overview for Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• UNIUSDT dropped sharply from $7.85 to $4.21 intraday, closing at $6.03 with high volatility and heavy volume.

• A long bearish engulfing pattern formed at $7.80–$6.95, suggesting strong downward momentum and bearish sentiment.

• Volatility expanded after 21:30 ET as price broke below $5.30, coinciding with a volume surge above 3 million.

• RSI reached oversold territory near 25, while Bollinger Bands widened significantly, hinting at potential reversal or continuation.

• Fibonacci levels at $5.15 (61.8%) and $5.50 (50%) are key support zones to watch for bounce or breakdown.

Uniswap/Tether (UNIUSDT) opened at $7.767 on October 10, 2025, hit a high of $7.85, a low of $2.0, and closed at $6.03 by 12:00 ET on October 11. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 106.2 million, with a notional turnover of $542.5 million.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a long bearish trend, with a sharp break below key support at $5.30. A long bearish engulfing pattern formed from $7.80 to $6.95, indicating strong bearish pressure. The price later tested lower support levels, reaching as low as $2.0 before retracing toward $6.00. This suggests a potential exhaustion of short-term selling pressure, but caution is warranted as momentum remains bearish and volatility remains high.

20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a steep downward slope, reflecting continued bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, reinforcing a bearish signal. While daily 50-period and 200-period MAs suggest a longer-term bearish trend, the recent retracement toward $6.00 may indicate a temporary pause in the decline.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit oversold levels near 25 following the drop below $5.30, raising the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, the divergence between RSI and price is limited, as price continues to decline in sync with RSI. Bollinger Bands are currently wide, reflecting increased volatility, and price remains near the lower band, consistent with an overextended bearish move. The 50-period and 200-period moving averages are both bearishly positioned, suggesting that any near-term bounce is likely to be short-lived.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may bring a test of the $5.50–$5.70 range, which could act as a critical area for either a consolidation or a continuation of the bearish trend. Investors should remain cautious due to the high volatility and lack of strong bullish confirmation. A breakout above $6.10 could signal renewed buying interest, while a breakdown below $5.30 may extend the decline toward the next Fibonacci level at $4.20.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could focus on a bounce-trade approach after a strong bearish move, using RSI oversold signals and Fibonacci retracement levels as entry triggers. Given the recent drop to $2.0 and the RSI reaching 25, a potential long trade at $5.15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) with a stop below $5.00 and a target at $5.50 could be evaluated. This strategy would benefit from increased volatility and price retracement from strong support levels. However, given the ongoing bearish trend, a trailing stop or hedging might be necessary to manage downside risk as the market remains highly susceptible to further breakdowns.