Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC) on 2025-10-12

• Price dropped from $0.04181 to $0.03083 before recovering slightly toward $0.03097.
• High volatility with significant intraday swings and a bearish divergence in volume.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum with potential oversold conditions emerging.
• Bollinger Bands show increased volatility in the morning, with price near the lower band.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest potential for a short-term bounce from key support.

TUTUSDC opened at $0.04181 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.03097 at the same time on 2025-10-12. The 24-hour range was between $0.03083 and $0.04294. Total trading volume reached 60,284,245.0, with a notional turnover of $1,912,919.83.

Structure & Formations

Price experienced a sharp decline from its early morning highs, forming a bearish trend with key support identified around $0.03083–$0.03100 and resistance near $0.0350–$0.0360. Notable bearish engulfing patterns were visible in the 4–5 AM ET window, while a morning doji near $0.03357 hinted at indecision before the continued downward drift.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, with price consistently below both. On a daily basis, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages suggest a strong downtrend is intact, with the 50-day MA currently near $0.0360 as a key retest level for near-term buyers.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been in negative territory for most of the 24-hour period, with bearish crossovers reinforcing the downward bias. The RSI hit oversold territory below 30 in the early hours of 2025-10-12, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, though momentum remains weak.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in the morning, with price hitting the lower band near $0.03083. The bands have since compressed slightly in the afternoon, indicating reduced volatility and consolidation. Price is currently near the lower band, hinting at potential oversold conditions.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the sharp decline from $0.0405 to $0.03172, with the largest 15-minute volume spike occurring around 2025-10-11 at 19:30 ET. Notional turnover also surged during this period, confirming the bearish move. However, recent volume has declined, indicating reduced conviction in the downward move and possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the recent 15-minute swing from $0.04181 to $0.03083, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels fall around $0.0370 and $0.0340, respectively. These levels could offer potential short-term resistance if a recovery occurs. A daily-level retracement from $0.04181 to $0.03097 suggests $0.0372 as a potential bounce level.

Looking ahead, the market appears to be in a consolidation phase near key support, with weak momentum and bearish alignment in the moving averages. A break above $0.0340 could rekindle short-term bullish sentiment, while a retest of $0.03083 could extend the downtrend. Investors should remain cautious of potential volatility and be prepared for mixed signals in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a mean-reversion approach, where trades are triggered on RSI below 30 and MACD divergence with price. This aligns well with the current situation, as RSI has been in oversold territory and price has diverged from the bearish MACD. A potential long entry near the $0.03083–$0.03100 support area could be tested using stop-losses below key levels and take-profit targets at 38.2% and 61.8% retracements. Historical data from similar 15-minute moves would be critical to assess the reliability of this setup in the current low-volatility environment.