Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC) on 2025-10-11

• Price collapsed 94.8% from 0.08949 to 0.04032 before stabilizing in a consolidation phase.
• Volatility spiked and then contracted sharply post-0.04032 as a 24-hour volume high of 9.3M occurred.
• RSI entered oversold territory and showed tentative reversal signs.
• Bollinger Bands tightened post-0.04032, suggesting a potential breakout.
• Divergence between volume and price suggests mixed market sentiment.

Price Action and Volume Summary

TUTUSDC opened at 0.08916 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.09149 before collapsing to a 24-hour low of 0.00059. The pair closed at 0.03676 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Over the 24-hour period, total volume reached 44.6M USDC, with notional turnover peaking at $3.69M during the sell-off phase. A sharp bearish breakout below key psychological levels was followed by a volatile pullback and consolidation pattern.

Structure & Formations

The price structure displayed a key breakdown below 0.08916, forming a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.08949–0.08567. A long bearish shadow formed around 0.04032–0.03303, followed by a potential bullish reversal pattern with a doji at 0.03401–0.03401. Key support levels include 0.03303, 0.03605, and 0.0393, with resistance above 0.04032 and 0.04148.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term averages (20/50) on the 15-min chart are bearish, with the 20SMA falling below the 50SMA after the collapse. The 50/100/200 daily averages are not available in the dataset but would be critical for longer-term positioning. RSI is currently in oversold territory around 25–30, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. MACD crossed below zero and is diverging with price, hinting at bearish momentum.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the initial breakdown phase, reaching a peak of 0.09149–0.08567, before contracting sharply after the 0.04032 low. Bollinger Bands have since narrowed, indicating consolidation. Price is now within the lower band at 0.03607–0.03676, a potential setup for a bounce or further bearish move if the bands widen again.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked during the breakdown at 0.09049 and again at 0.08948, confirming the bearish move. However, turnover diverged during the consolidation phase, with volume increasing but price action remaining flat, suggesting indecision. The largest volume bar occurred at 0.03401 (volume: 5.6M) with a low notional turnover, indicating large orders or wash trading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.09149–0.0393 swing, the 50% retrace level is at 0.0654, while the 61.8% is at 0.0553. Price is now approaching the 38.2% retracement at 0.0453. These levels could act as dynamic support/resistance in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short-term reversal trade at or below 0.03605 with a stop-loss placed above 0.0393 and a target near 0.03303. This setup aligns with RSI divergence and a bullish doji forming at 0.03401. A more aggressive approach might involve buying the rebound at 0.03676, with a stop-loss below 0.0355, if the Bollinger Band contraction continues to imply a breakout.