Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC) – 2025-10-04

• Price surged to 0.08646 before consolidating near 0.08571 amid high volume.
• Volatility spiked after 14:30 ET with a 1.25% move and strong RSI divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price traded near the upper band during the late-day rally.
• High turnover ($4.3M+) confirmed momentum, with a 30-minute bullish engulfing pattern near 0.08578.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 0.0850–0.0860 as key levels to watch for continuation or reversal.

The TUTUSDC pair opened at 0.08397 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.08646 during the session before closing at 0.08571 as of 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume was 10,392,793.00, with a notional turnover of $4.3M+. Key support and resistance levels emerged from a 15-minute chart, where a bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.08578 on October 4 at 14:30 ET, signaling a potential short-term reversal after a sharp drop from 0.08621 to 0.08563.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed multiple pivotal formations. A bearish divergence in RSI occurred at 0.08391 as volume surged but price failed to break below 0.0838. This was followed by a sharp rebound and a bullish engulfing pattern during the 14:30–15:00 ET hour, confirming a shift in sentiment. The most significant price action occurred between 14:30 and 15:00 ET, where a large bullish candle broke above a key 0.08563–0.0859 resistance cluster. A descending triangle formation on the daily chart also provided a measured move target near 0.0861, now slightly oversold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed above 0.0856 in the final 3 hours, confirming the recent upward shift. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sits at 0.0843, the 100-period at 0.0839, and the 200-period at 0.0837. Price remains above both the 50 and 200-day averages, suggesting intermediate-term bullish momentum despite the pullback.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line (trigger line) at 0.0854 during the afternoon rally, confirming bullish momentum. The RSI reached 70 during the 15:00–15:30 ET window, signaling overbought conditions, though this was followed by a divergence on the close. A bearish divergence in RSI occurred near 0.08391 during a failed bearish move, while a bullish divergence followed near 0.08578, reinforcing the case for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 14:30 ET as price moved near the upper band for multiple consecutive candles. The bands were wide, with a standard deviation of 0.00065, indicating increased market uncertainty. Price has since retracted into the upper half of the band, suggesting that while the move has been strong, overbought conditions may still apply. A breakdown below the lower band at 0.0846 would suggest renewed bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 14:30–15:00 ET hour, with over 380,000 contracts traded in support of the 1.25% price move. Turnover during this period exceeded $1.4M, confirming the strength of the move. However, volume declined in the following 15-minute interval despite continued price gains, signaling possible exhaustion in the upward move. Divergence between volume and price during the 15:15–15:45 ET period also raised caution about the sustainability of the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 14:15–14:30 ET swing (0.08388 to 0.08621), price has retraced to the 61.8% level at 0.0850 and is currently testing the 78.6% at 0.0860. A break above 0.0860 would suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, while a failure to hold above 0.0850 could trigger a retest of the 38.2% level at 0.0846. On the daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement of the October 2–4 swing is at 0.0855, adding another layer of near-term significance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The strategy described in the backtest involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a RSI divergence above 50 and volume increasing by at least 20% compared to the previous period. Over the last 24 hours, this pattern occurred near 0.08578 during the 14:30–15:00 ET window, with volume increasing by 35% and RSI confirming a bullish divergence. A backtest using this signal would have entered a long position with a stop loss placed below the 0.0855 level and a target at 0.0861. A hypothetical trade using this setup would have yielded a 0.68% profit over 30 minutes. This approach could be refined with tighter stop levels and additional filters, such as a MACD crossover, to increase the signal-to-noise ratio.