Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC): 2025-09-27

• TUTUSDC closed near 0.0886 after a choppy session with a high of 0.0922 and a low of 0.0858.
• Momentum shifted toward buyers in the final hours, with volume surging in the 5–7 AM ET window.
• Bollinger Band expansion and RSI overbought levels suggest short-term consolidation could follow.
• Divergence between volume and price during the 21:00–23:00 ET sell-off warrants further observation.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.0895 and 0.0867 appear to contain the near-term action.

TUTUSDC opened at 0.08808 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.09372 and a low of 0.0858 before closing at 0.08859 on 2025-09-27 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 21,032,724.0 with a turnover of approximately $1,862,589. The pair displayed a complex 24-hour profile, with a bearish morning session followed by a strong rally and bearish reversal in the late hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the start of the session, followed by a bullish morning reversal near the 0.08657 support. A strong 50-minute bullish surge in the 5:00–5:45 AM ET window broke the 0.0900–0.0905 resistance cluster. A potential bearish harami formed around 0.0920–0.0928, signaling indecision. A key horizontal support at 0.0885–0.0890 now appears critical.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart intersected twice during the session, forming a bullish crossover in the 5–6 AM ET window and a bearish crossover in the 7–8 AM ET window. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is above the 200-period SMA, but price is below the 200-period, indicating a possible consolidation phase. The 100-period SMA at ~0.0895 appears to cap the upside for now.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bullish expansion during the 5–6 AM ET rally, followed by a bearish divergence in the 7–9 AM ET window. RSI reached overbought territory above 70 during the morning rally but pulled back to mid-50s by the end of the session. A potential bearish divergence between RSI and price emerged during the 9–10 AM ET sell-off, raising concerns about short-term momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning and midday rally, with price testing the upper band at ~0.0928 before retreating. In the late session, the bands constricted slightly, and price remained within the 0.0885–0.0900 range, indicating a reduction in volatility. A break above 0.0928 or below 0.0885 could trigger renewed expansion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 5–7 AM ET rally (over 2.1 million contracts), followed by a sharp drop-off in the 7–9 AM ET period despite continued price declines. This divergence suggests weakening bearish conviction. The 5–7 AM ET period accounted for the majority of the 24-hour turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute swing from 0.0858 to 0.09372 produced key retracements at 0.0895 (38.2%), 0.0914 (50%), and 0.0924 (61.8%). Price tested 0.0924 in the morning before retreating. A daily swing from 0.08678 to 0.09372 places 0.0903 at the 38.2% level and 0.0887 at 50%, both of which were tested during the session.

In the next 24 hours, TUTUSDC could see a consolidation phase within the 0.0885–0.0905 range, with key support at 0.0885 and resistance at 0.0900. A breakout above 0.0915 would favor bullish sentiment, while a breakdown below 0.0880 could test earlier support levels. Investors should remain cautious of potential volatility spikes and bearish divergences in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position at a bullish crossover between the 20-period and 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the nearest Fibonacci level and a target at the 38.2% retracement. Given the observed divergence in the late session, a trailing stop might be preferable. A short position could be initiated on a bearish divergence between RSI and price action, with a target at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.