Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC (TUTUSDC) – 2025-09-26

• Price surged 7.3% in 24 hours, closing at 0.0872 after a strong post-noon ET rebound.
• Volatility expanded with a 0.0067 range (0.08216–0.08896), signaling mixed momentum.
• Key resistance at 0.08896 (high) and support at 0.0858 are defined by candlestick and volume profiles.
• RSI peaked in overbought territory twice, hinting at potential pullbacks.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-noon, indicating increased market participation and risk.

The pair TUTUSDC opened at 0.08237 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of 0.08896, and closed at 0.0872 by 2025-09-26 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 22,813,872 USDC, with a notional turnover of $1,971,953 (based on average price). The price action reflects a strong bear-to-bull shift post-noon, with a notable consolidation phase in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bullish engulfing pattern around 19:45 ET (0.08382–0.08804) and a bearish doji at 05:00 ET (0.08593–0.08593), suggesting indecision. A key ascending triangle formed between 0.0858 and 0.08896 from 19:30–07:00 ET, with a breakout at 07:15 ET (0.0888–0.08919). The 0.0858 level was retested twice, consolidating as a strong support, while 0.08896 emerged as resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA in the early morning, confirming a bullish bias. The 50-period SMA at 0.08785 closely aligned with the closing price at 0.0872, indicating a potential pullback toward the 50-line. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA at 0.08678 and the 200-period SMA at 0.08559 were closely approached, suggesting a possible retest of these lines as key psychological support zones.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory at 06:45 ET and maintained a bullish signal until 10:15 ET when it began to flatten. RSI reached 73 (overbought) at 08:45 ET and 72 at 10:00 ET, indicating overbought conditions. However, the RSI divergence with price (higher highs but lower RSI) at 09:00–10:00 ET suggests a possible pullback.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands widened significantly post-noon, reflecting heightened volatility. Price traded near the upper band between 05:00–07:00 ET and retested the lower band at 11:30–12:00 ET. The 20-period standard deviation increased from 0.00065 to 0.00082, signaling a potential contraction in volatility ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 19:45 ET (1.856M USDC) and again at 07:15 ET (1.519M USDC), confirming strong directional moves. Notional turnover peaked at $15,298 at 07:15 ET. A divergence occurred at 10:00–11:00 ET, with price rising but volume declining, suggesting a weakening bullish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were key in determining potential pullback targets and continuation zones. The 38.2% retracement at 0.08695 and 61.8% at 0.08762 were tested during the consolidation phase. The 100% extension at 0.08896 was reached at the peak, with the 161.8% extension at 0.0898 expected as a potential next target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be designed to enter long positions when the 20-period SMA crosses above the 50-period SMA and RSI drops below 50, followed by a stop-loss at the 20-period standard deviation. The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements can serve as take-profit levels. Given the current alignment of moving averages and RSI, and the defined support/resistance zones, this strategy may be applied over the next 24 hours with a 1.5% risk-to-reward ratio.