Market Overview for Tutorial/USDC on 2025-09-23

• Price closed 0.85% lower at $0.08506 after a volatile 24-hour range of $0.08132 to $0.08704.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 40, while MACD trended lower, suggesting bearish bias.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing lower boundaries.
• High-volume correction seen between 02:00 and 04:30 ET, with price dropping to a 24-hour low of $0.08132.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at $0.08378 failed to contain the selloff, opening fresh support testing below.

The TUTUSDC pair opened at $0.08549 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of $0.08704 and a low of $0.08132 before closing at $0.08506 on 2025-09-23. Total traded volume over 24 hours was 8,781,568, with a notional turnover of approximately $755,968. Price action showed strong bearish sentiment with a clear downward drift and bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish breakdown from key resistance at $0.0855 and $0.0860, with price failing to hold the $0.0850–0.0855 range multiple times. Notable candlestick patterns included a hanging man at $0.0856, a morning star rejection at $0.0842, and a strong bearish engulfing pattern around $0.0860. Key support levels emerged at $0.0844 and $0.0838, while resistance levels at $0.0853 and $0.0858 were repeatedly tested.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with price consistently trading below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA hovered near $0.0851, with price closing just above it, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. The 100-period and 200-period MAs remained bearish, reinforcing the idea that the larger trend remains negative.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26 MACD crossed below zero and trended lower, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI fell to 34 by the close of the 24-hour window, suggesting oversold territory but not yet reaching extreme levels. There were signs of divergence between volume and price during the afternoon, with lower volumes accompanying sharp price declines.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning selloff, with over 550k contracts traded between 02:00 and 04:00 ET. The highest turnover occurred during the same period, with over $50k traded at the 24-hour low of $0.08132. There was a divergence between volume and price during the afternoon rally, as volume remained subdued despite a modest price rebound, casting doubt on the sustainability of the recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from $0.0860 to $0.08132, price tested the 61.8% level at $0.08378 but failed to hold it. The 50% retracement level at $0.0837 was briefly tested in the afternoon, but bears regained control. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from a recent bull move at $0.0860 remains at $0.0837, suggesting it could be a key area of interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, along with price failing to hold key Fibonacci levels and the lower Bollinger Band, a short-term sell strategy could be backtested using a RSI crossover below 40 as a trigger, with stop-loss placed above the 20-period MA and a take-profit near the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Volume spikes during down moves would add confirmation for entries, while divergences during rallies could signal trend strength. This hypothesis aligns with the observed bearish momentum and supports a data-driven, low-latency trading approach.