Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) – October 7, 2025

• TWTUSDT declined from $1.69 to $1.5659 amid high volatility and uneven volume spikes.
• Key support tested at $1.57–1.58; bearish momentum intensified post-18:00 ET.
• RSI oversold, MACD bearish divergence suggests potential bounce, but downward bias remains strong.
• Bollinger Band contraction at 03:00 ET followed by expansion signaled increased volatility post-breakout.
• Volume spiked during early morning recovery but failed to confirm bullish reversal.

The Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) pair opened at $1.6832 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.6096 on October 7 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $1.69 and a low of $1.5659. Total volume traded was 9,502,270.0, and notional turnover (volume × average price) was approximately $14.7M over the same window.

Structure & Formations

The TWTUSDT pair experienced a sharp bearish trend from $1.69 to $1.5659, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming at 18:00 ET, indicating strong short-term selling pressure. The $1.57–1.58 range served as a key support area, successfully tested multiple times, but failed to hold during the initial 18:00 ET candle. A doji at 04:15 ET signaled potential exhaustion in the bearish move. Resistance levels at $1.60–1.61 were retested during the overnight recovery but showed weak follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MAs) are trending downward, with price consistently below both lines, indicating bearish control. The 50-period MA is near $1.595–1.60, and a rebound above this level could signal a near-term pause in the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day MAs are all in bearish alignment, with the 50-day MA at ~$1.63 acting as overhead resistance for any near-term rally.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line has remained negative for most of the 24-hour period, with bearish crossovers occurring after key declines. A divergence between price and MACD was observed at 02:00–05:00 ET, where prices rebounded while the MACD remained weak, suggesting possible exhaustion in the bearish move. The RSI indicator hit oversold territory below 30 around 01:30–02:30 ET, indicating a potential bounce, but momentum failed to confirm a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was high during the 18:00–22:00 ET window, with the Bollinger Bands widening as the price broke through the lower band to hit a 24-hour low of $1.5659. A contraction was observed around 03:00–04:00 ET, followed by a breakout to the upside. The current price of $1.6096 is sitting near the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a potential overbought condition and possible consolidation in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the 18:00–19:00 ET window, coinciding with the sharp decline to $1.5659. The subsequent morning recovery from $1.56 to $1.60 was accompanied by moderate volume, indicating a lack of conviction in the bullish move. Notional turnover peaked during the 18:00–19:00 ET window at approximately $2.4M. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the 00:00–03:00 ET window, where prices recovered but volume remained low, suggesting a potential pause in the bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the $1.69 to $1.5659 swing, the 61.8% level (~$1.61) was retested twice on October 7. This level appears to have some short-term significance, and a break above $1.615 could target the 78.6% retracement at $1.64. On the downside, the 38.2% level (~$1.59) has been a key area of support, and failure to hold below that could extend the correction toward the 23.6% retracement at $1.575.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean reversion approach using a combination of RSI and Bollinger Bands. For example, long entries could be triggered when RSI drops below 30 (oversold) and price touches the lower Bollinger Band, with exits set at the 50-period MA or upon RSI crossing above 50. Conversely, short positions could be considered when RSI rises above 70 and price touches the upper Bollinger Band. This method would aim to capture volatility-based swings while leveraging key technical levels for risk management.