Market Overview: Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT)

• Price surged from 1.3942 to 1.5043 before consolidating, forming a bullish flag pattern near 1.48–1.49.
• Volatility spiked mid-day, with volume surging to 736K on the 16:45 ET candle, confirming breakout momentum.
• RSI hit 68 in the midday rally, signaling potential overbought conditions and a possible pullback.
• Bollinger Bands expanded with the move, while price closed near the upper band, indicating aggressive buying.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 1.47 (61.8%) and 1.45 (38.2%) appear to act as key support/resistance zones.

The Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) pair opened at 1.3942 on October 12, 2025 at 12:00 ET, and closed at 1.4122 one day later, with a high of 1.5043 and a low of 1.3852. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 13,078,458.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $18.6 million (based on average price). The price displayed a sharp midday rally followed by a sharp pullback, forming a bullish flag pattern.

Key support levels were observed at 1.45–1.47 (38.2–61.8% Fibonacci retracements from the 1.3852 to 1.5043 move), while resistance clustered near 1.48–1.50. The 20-period EMA (1.435) and 50-period EMA (1.429) remained below the current price, reinforcing a potential shift to a bullish bias on the 15-minute chart. The daily chart showed a mixed setup, with the 50-period and 200-period EMAs diverging slightly, suggesting no clear long-term trend.

The MACD turned positive during the midday rally, with a golden cross forming and signaling a potential continuation of the bullish move. However, RSI approached overbought territory (68), hinting that a short-term correction could be on the horizon. Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased during the rally and the pair closed near the upper band, suggesting strong buying pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern and a doji appeared during the afternoon pullback, indicating indecision and potential reversal signals.

The volume and turnover profile showed a sharp increase during the 16:45 ET–18:00 ET window, with the largest single candle (16:45 ET) reaching 736K volume and a high of 1.4597. The 18:30–20:00 ET period saw a sharp decline, with volume dropping below average and a bearish reversal candle forming. This divergence between volume and price action during the decline may signal weakening bearish conviction and a potential rebound.

The Fibonacci levels and key moving averages appear to align with major price action pivots. The 1.45–1.47 support zone saw multiple bounces and retests, while the 1.48–1.50 area showed resistance during the consolidation phase. Investors may watch these levels closely over the next 24 hours for a potential breakout or breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the strong MACD golden cross and subsequent rally observed in the 15-minute chart, a backtest based on a “buy on golden cross and sell the same day” or “next day” strategy may yield interesting insights. While we cannot model an exact 15-minute holding period with the available tools, we can evaluate the average price change in the 15-minute window post-golden cross as a proxy for edge. A statistical study of these price movements may help determine whether the signal offers a consistent directional bias, particularly in volatile pairs like TWTUSDT.