Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT)

• TWTUSDT surged to $1.33 before consolidating near $1.10.
• Strong bullish momentum in early hours, followed by a bearish reversal in the afternoon.
• Bollinger Bands widened, signaling increased volatility.
• Volume spiked during the late-night rally but declined as the price corrected.
• RSI overbought levels suggest potential for a pullback.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-18, TWTUSDT opened at $0.9112 and closed at $1.0738 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The 24-hour high was $1.33, and the low was $0.8896. The total volume traded was approximately 122,455,383 units, with a notional turnover of $127.5 million. This volatile session saw significant price swings and notable volume spikes during key turning points.

Structure & Formations

TWTUSDT formed a strong bullish reversal pattern during the overnight session, marked by a long lower shadow and a strong close near the high. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern in the afternoon, which suggested a loss of momentum. Key support levels appear around $1.07–$1.09, while resistance was tested near $1.13–$1.15. A doji near $1.0738 suggests indecision and a potential short-term consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have diverged, with the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA in the late morning, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, indicating a longer-term bullish bias, though the recent price action may challenge this.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the afternoon, confirming the bearish reversal seen in the price action. The RSI reached overbought territory during the morning rally, peaking near 75, before dropping sharply toward neutral ground, suggesting the recent correction is in line with momentum expectations. A reading below 50 now raises the possibility of a short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was clearly expanding, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly during the early hours of the trading session. The price peaked near the upper band, suggesting a strong bullish move, but quickly retracted toward the middle band in the afternoon. The bands are now in a more neutral position, with the price hovering slightly above the 20-period moving average. A break below the lower band could indicate further selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the overnight rally, peaking at $1.33 with a 15-minute volume of over 11.9 million units. However, as the price corrected in the afternoon and evening, volume dropped off, indicating a lack of conviction in the bearish move. The notional turnover peaked at over $127.5 million, but the divergence between rising price and falling volume in the afternoon suggests that buyers are becoming less aggressive. This could be a warning sign for further consolidation or a pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the overnight high of $1.33 and the low of $0.8896, the 61.8% retracement level sits around $1.11, and the 38.2% level near $1.08. The price currently sits just above the 61.8% level, suggesting potential resistance ahead. A break below the 50% retracement at $1.075 would signal a deeper correction into the 38.2% level, but a rebound above $1.13 could rekindle bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration relies on a combination of a 20-period and 50-period MA crossover, along with a 15-minute RSI filter to avoid overbought conditions. Given the recent behavior of TWTUSDT, this strategy could have captured the early morning rally while avoiding the bearish reversal in the afternoon. The RSI filtering mechanism would have prevented entry during the overbought phase, while the MA crossover would have provided an early signal to exit the long position during the bearish engulfing pattern. This approach may be suitable for short-term traders but requires a strict risk management plan due to the asset’s volatility.