Market Overview: Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price opened at $1.3319 and closed at $1.3289 within a 24-hour range of $1.3317–$1.3640
• A key bearish reversal pattern formed near $1.3635 with high volume
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near $1.3640 before a sharp pullback
• Volatility expanded during the day as Bollinger Bands widened
• Notional turnover exceeded $2.1M, with volume spikes aligning with price highs

TWTUSDT opened at $1.3319 on October 2, 2025 (12:00 ET - 1), reaching a high of $1.3640 and a low of $1.3118, closing at $1.3289 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total traded volume was 6,610,697, with a notional turnover of $8.92 million. The price exhibited a volatile V-shaped pattern, breaking above $1.3600 before retracing sharply lower.

Structure & Formations

The price structure over the 24-hour period showed a key bearish reversal at the high of $1.3635, where a large-volume candle formed with a long upper shadow and a bearish close. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the $1.3118–$1.3640 swing appears to coincide with $1.3420, which acted as a temporary resistance-turned-support zone. A doji near $1.3556 during the late afternoon ET suggests indecision, hinting at a potential consolidation phase before a breakout.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged near $1.3400 and $1.3450, respectively, forming a bearish crossover signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average remains above the 200-period, indicating a mildly bullish bias in the broader trend. However, the price is currently below both, signaling short-term bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after the price peak at $1.3635, confirming bearish momentum. RSI surged into overbought territory at 78–80 before dropping sharply to the mid-50s, suggesting exhaustion at the high. A bearish divergence is evident between the RSI and price near the $1.3500–$1.3550 range, reinforcing the risk of a further pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour period, with Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of ~$1.33 to a broad range of ~$1.36. The price reached the upper band at $1.3635 before retracting sharply to test the lower band near $1.3118. The retrace to the lower band coincided with a bullish reversal candle, suggesting a potential bounce back into the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at $1.3635 and $1.3640 with turnover reaching a peak of over $500,000, indicating strong selling pressure at the high. The sharp drop in volume during the retrace suggests weakening bearish conviction. A notable divergence between declining volume and falling price below $1.3350 indicates a potential exhaustion of the bearish wave, with a possible near-term bounce expected.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the $1.3118–$1.3640 swing, the 61.8% level sits at $1.3387 and appears to coincide with a key support/resistance level. The 50% level at $1.3379 was tested multiple times and showed a bearish bias after the retrace. The 38.2% level at $1.3420 appears to have caught a bounce, potentially forming a short-term floor. These levels will be critical in the next 24 hours for directional clarity.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias on break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($1.3387) with a stop above the 50% level ($1.3379). A long setup could be triggered on a break above $1.3430, with a stop below the 38.2% level ($1.3420). Given the bearish momentum and the recent volume spike at the high, a short-biased approach may be more justified in the near term, but tight stops and position sizing are essential to manage risk.