Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) on 2025-11-12

Summary

• Price fell from 1.2667 to 1.2188, ending at 1.2565.
• RSI oversold, MACD negative, and volume surged during the decline.
• Bollinger Bands show strong volatility with price testing lower band.

Opening Narrative

Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) opened at 1.261 on 2025-11-12 and reached a high of 1.2667 before closing at 1.2565. The 24-hour low was 1.2188. Total volume was 1,791,535.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,256,246.27.

Structure & Formations

The price action shows a distinct breakdown from a 1.25–1.26 resistance cluster, with support forming in the 1.22–1.23 range. Several bearish engulfing patterns emerged during the midday decline, especially between 20:00 and 22:00 ET. A doji formed at the 1.2421 level, suggesting indecision and a potential near-term pivot.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs trended downward, indicating bearish momentum. Daily SMAs (50, 100, and 200) appear to be flattening, suggesting a potential shift in trend. The price closed above the 20-period MA but below the 50-period MA, highlighting a mixed signal between short- and medium-term dynamics.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached a 28.44 level during the session, dipping into oversold territory. The MACD remained negative throughout, with the histogram showing a consistent bearish divergence. While RSI suggests a potential rebound, the MACD has yet to show a clear bullish crossover.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sharp decline, reflecting increased volatility. The price tested the lower band at 1.2188 and bounced back, indicating that support is holding in that area. Traders may watch the 1.2321–1.2365 upper retracement level for a potential breakout signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the 20:00–22:00 ET window, coinciding with the 1.2188 low. Notional turnover also surged, aligning with the price drop and confirming bearish momentum. A divergence between price and volume has not emerged, so the bearish trend appears to be supported by trading activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 1.2188–1.2568 move, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels fall at approximately 1.2415 and 1.2305. These levels will be key resistance and potential reversal points in the near term. The 1.248 level appears to be a critical psychological threshold.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “RSI Oversold – 5-Day Hold” strategy on TWTUSDT has historically delivered a 118.16% total return since 2022, with an average trade of +2.09% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.59. Given today’s RSI dip below 30 and the strong volume confirmation, this strategy may offer a viable approach for traders seeking to capture a potential rebound over the next few days.