Market Overview for Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• TWT/USDT dropped 5.6% over the last 24 hours, closing near intraday lows.
• Momentum weakened, with RSI below 30 and MACD bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below key Bollinger Band support.
• Volume surged during the downtrend, confirming bearish bias.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential near 1.44–1.46 as short-term support.

The Trust Wallet Token/Tether (TWTUSDT) pair opened at 1.641 at 12:00 ET−1 and fell to an intraday low of 1.4496 by 14:45 ET, closing at 1.4418 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 16,982,426.0, with a notional turnover of $24,748,352.00, reflecting heightened trading activity during the downward move.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart show a bearish breakdown from key resistance at 1.56–1.58, followed by a sharp drop below 1.51 and a breakdown of support at 1.48. Notable candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing formation at 1.57–1.56 and a long lower shadow at 1.52–1.51, suggesting selling pressure. A doji formed near 1.495, signaling indecision and a potential consolidation phase.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show price well below the 50- and 20-period lines, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 200SMA at 1.50 acted as a temporary support, but the price broke through it with high volume. The 50- and 100SMA are also bearish, with the 50SMA now at 1.53 and the 100SMA at 1.55, suggesting further downward potential.

MACD shows a bearish crossover with the histogram declining, confirming weakening momentum. RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though divergence suggests further sell-offs may occur before a potential bounce. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, with price now below the lower band, reinforcing the volatility and bearish sentiment.

Volume and turnover spiked during the sharp sell-off from 1.56 to 1.48, with no corresponding price rebound, suggesting strong bearish conviction. The lack of divergence between price and volume supports the continuation of the downtrend. Turnover surged near 1.495 and 1.475, aligning with key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (1.52) and 61.8% (1.48), both of which were tested and broken.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent 15-minute swing (1.55–1.51) and the daily move (1.64–1.44) highlight key support at 1.52 (38.2%), 1.48 (61.8%), and 1.44 (target). Price appears to be consolidating near 1.44–1.46, which could serve as a short-term floor before potential follow-through selling.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the recent breakdown below key support levels and the strong bearish confirmation from MACD and RSI, a potential short-term trading strategy could involve a short entry at the first retest of 1.46–1.47, with a stop above 1.51 and a target at 1.42–1.44. This aligns with the Fibonacci 78.6% level and previous support-turned-resistance. A backtest using historical data would need to assess the effectiveness of this strategy during similar volatility spikes and volume surges.