Market Overview for TrueUSD/Tether (TUSDUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• TrueUSD/Tether (TUSDUSDT) traded in a tight 0.998–0.999 range over 24 hours with a bearish bias after midday ET.
• Price broke below key 0.9985 support with confirmation from volume spikes and bearish engulfing patterns.
• RSI and MACD suggest moderate bearish momentum, while volume and turnover show no divergence.
• Volatility increased during the late ET session, as shown by a wide Bollinger Band expansion.
• Key Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.9982–0.9984 may offer near-term support.

Opening and Price Action Summary

TrueUSD/Tether (TUSDUSDT) opened at 0.9988 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.999, and a low of 0.998, closing at 0.9982 by 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour notional turnover amounted to approximately $334,134 (assuming a USD-based conversion), with a total trading volume of 398,779 contracts. Price action exhibited a clear bearish tilt, especially during the late evening and overnight sessions in ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed a number of bearish candlestick formations. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 19:15 ET and 19:30 ET when the close dropped below the previous candle's open, confirming a short-term reversal. A bearish trend was further reinforced by a doji at 04:15 ET and a series of lower closes in the overnight session. Key support levels were identified at 0.9983 and 0.9981, with a possible resistance retest at 0.9985 if a bounce occurs.

Volatility and Momentum Indicators

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late ET trading session, reflecting heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band during the overnight low, suggesting bearish pressure. RSI dropped into the 30–35 range by the close, indicating oversold conditions that may not be indicative of a strong reversal given the broader bearish context. The MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram and a slow crossover, reinforcing the downward bias.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume and turnover increased notably during key price declines, particularly between 19:15 ET and 20:30 ET, confirming the bearish move. A strong volume spike at 03:30 ET coincided with a sharp drop to 0.9983, indicating liquidation or profit-taking by large participants. Notional turnover followed the same trend, aligning with price and volume, and no major divergence was observed, suggesting the bearish move remains valid for now.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be based on the bearish engulfing pattern and the RSI hitting oversold levels. A short entry may be triggered on the confirmation of the engulfing candle (open above close of previous candle and close below open of previous candle) followed by a stop-loss placed above the 0.9985 resistance level. A take-profit target could be set at the 0.9981–0.9982 Fibonacci retracement level. The RSI reaching the 30–35 range could act as a secondary confirmation filter. Given the recent volume confirmation and momentum divergence, this setup has reasonable risk/reward for a short-term bearish trade.