Market Overview for TrueUSD/Tether (TUSDUSDT) on 2025-09-23

• TUSDUSDT traded in a tight range early, then broke out above 0.9976 before a sharp sell-off late ET.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 01:15 ET as price dropped to 0.9970, triggering large-volume bearish follow-through.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions before 06:00 ET and oversold after 01:15 ET, confirming momentum shifts.
• Price closed near 0.9981 after a final bullish recovery, but key resistance at 0.9983–0.9984 appears strong.

The TUSDUSDT pair opened at 0.9975 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.9984 before closing at 0.9981 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading range was between 0.9970 and 0.9984. Total volume was 1,090,585.0, and notional turnover was $940,215.0. The session was marked by a strong bearish reversal late in the cycle.

Structure & Formations

The price moved in a tight range until 01:15 ET, forming a series of small bullish and bearish hammers and spinning tops. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 01:15 ET as the candle closed at 0.9971 after opening at 0.9979 and trading as high as 0.9979. This marked the start of a sustained bearish phase. A bullish hammer at 06:45 ET and a bullish inside bar at 08:15 ET signaled a short-term recovery. Key support levels at 0.9970–0.9972 and resistance at 0.9983–0.9984 were tested multiple times.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned during the early part of the session, reflecting consolidation. However, after 01:15 ET, the 20 MA dipped below the 50 MA, forming a potential death cross. The price closed above both averages at the end of the session, but the 20 MA showed a bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the price closed above the 50-period MA but below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover at 01:15 ET, followed by a sharp decline in the histogram, confirming the bearish momentum. The RSI peaked above 65 at 06:00 ET, indicating overbought conditions, and dropped below 35 after 01:15 ET, signaling oversold territory. The RSI divergence from the price move after 01:15 ET suggests a strong bearish sentiment. The MACD returned to positive territory by the end of the session, reflecting the final recovery phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low until 01:15 ET, with price staying within the Bollinger Bands. After the sharp sell-off, the bands widened significantly, and the price dropped below the lower band for several candles, indicating a period of high volatility and strong bearish pressure. By the final hours of the session, the price returned to the upper portion of the bands, suggesting a potential reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 01:15 ET as the price dropped sharply from 0.9979 to 0.9971, with a turnover of $122,709.0. This was followed by a second volume spike at 07:15 ET as the price moved from 0.9975 to 0.9984. The final bullish move before the close also saw increased volume, with a turnover of $94,021.50. The price and volume actions were well-aligned during the bearish phase, but a divergence was noted during the final recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 01:15–06:45 ET bearish move revealed key levels at 0.9975 (38.2%), 0.9973 (50%), and 0.9971 (61.8%). The price found support at the 50% and 61.8% levels but failed to hold at 0.9983 (78.6%) on the bullish recovery. On the daily chart, retracements from the recent 2025-09-22 low to the 2025-09-23 high highlighted 0.9981 (38.2%) as a potential consolidation level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed volatility spikes and the bearish reversal at 01:15 ET, a backtest strategy could be built around shorting on a confirmed break of the lower Bollinger Band with a stop-loss above the 50-period moving average. The RSI entering oversold territory after 01:15 ET and the bearish engulfing pattern suggest a strong case for a short trade. A target could be placed at the 0.9970–0.9972 support zone. This setup was confirmed by volume and price divergence, making it a high-probability entry point in a volatile session.