Market Overview for TRON/Yen (TRXJPY)

• TRXJPY traded lower by 1.8% in 24 hours amid a bearish price consolidation below key resistance levels.
• Volatility expanded during midday ET, marked by a sharp drop and subsequent partial recovery.
• Notable bearish divergence in RSI suggests weakening momentum despite renewed volume spikes.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the afternoon session, highlighting increased market uncertainty.
• Fibonacci retracements indicate potential support near 47.83–47.88, aligning with recent price action.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-12, TRXJPY opened at 48.81, reaching a high of 49.30 and a low of 47.40, closing at 49.30 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. The pair traded with a total volume of 131,842.64 and a notional turnover of 6,379,428.54 Yen over the 24-hour period. The session was marked by a sharp intraday decline, followed by a bullish reversal in late trading.

Structure & Formations

TRXJPY exhibited a bearish breakdown early in the session from the 48.80–48.85 resistance range, forming a long lower wick and a dark cloud cover pattern around 19:00–20:00 ET. Price found short-term support at 47.40, followed by a strong bullish reversal in late trading with a 48.09–49.30 upward move. A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 48.34 was tested and broken, while the 38.2% level at 48.73 was a minor resistance on the way down.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price action after 19:00 ET, confirming the bearish shift. On the daily chart, price closed above the 50-period MA but below the 200-period MA, indicating a mixed medium-term outlook. A potential crossover of the 50-period MA above the 200-period MA would be a bullish sign for the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26/9 MACD showed a bearish crossover in the mid-session and remained negative until late trading, when it turned bullish ahead of the price rebound. RSI reached a low of 29, signaling oversold conditions, which coincided with the price recovery. However, RSI failed to reach overbought territory at the end of the session, indicating limited bullish momentum despite the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the afternoon and early evening, reflecting high volatility during the bearish leg of the move. The price closed above the upper band at 49.30, suggesting renewed strength in the final hours of the session. A retest of the lower band at 47.40–47.45 is likely in the near term if the consolidation continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:00–21:00 ET sell-off, with an outflow of over 28,000 units of TRX, indicating institutional or large-cap selling. The final bullish leg saw a smaller but notable volume spike of 827.27 units, confirming the strength of the reversal. Notional turnover spiked in the late hours, with a strong 827.27 units traded at 49.30.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level at 48.34 acted as a pivotal support during the bearish leg, and the 38.2% level at 48.73 provided resistance on the way down. In the late trading session, the price closed near the 78.6% level of the previous 48.03–49.30 move, suggesting a possible continuation of the bullish trend if this level holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on a breakout of the 47.83–48.08 range on the 15-minute chart, which acted as a key support/resistance area during the session. A long signal could be triggered on a close above 48.09, with a stop loss below 47.80 and a target at 48.34. Alternatively, a short entry could be considered during a retest of the 48.09–48.13 level if the RSI fails to confirm the bullish reversal. This approach aligns with the observed momentum and volume dynamics, using price action and Fibonacci levels for precise entry and exit points.