Market Overview for TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) on 2025-11-05

Summary
• TRXJPY rose from 43.23 to 44.06 in 24 hours, with strong bullish momentum seen in late overnight trading.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory, suggesting potential pullback risks.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating rising volatility and a likely trend continuation.
• Volume spiked to 13696.39 in the final hour, confirming the upward move.
• A key resistance appears at 44.06, aligning with the 24-hour high.

TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at 43.23 on 2025-11-04 and closed at 44.06 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05, reaching a high of 44.06 and a low of 42.68 in the process. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 190,456.24, with notional turnover amounting to 8,180,981.59. The price action reflects a strong bullish bias, supported by increased volume and positive momentum.

The 15-minute chart shows a clear consolidation into an upward bias, with the price above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting continued strength. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the overnight session, reinforcing a potential bullish crossover.

Momentum and Oscillators

The 12-period MACD crossed above the signal line in the early hours of 2025-11-05, indicating renewed bullish momentum. The RSI has surged into overbought territory (above 70), suggesting a possible near-term correction or consolidation phase. This could present an entry point for short-term traders seeking a pullback before further gains.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from 43.01 to 44.06, showing increased volatility and a higher probability of the trend continuing. The price currently sits near the upper band, reinforcing the idea of a strong trend. A retest of the 43.98–43.94 area may signal a potential consolidation phase.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged to 13,696.39 in the final hour of the 24-hour window, confirming the strength of the rally. Notional turnover also increased, aligning with the price action. A divergence between volume and price could signal a reversal, but current data appears to support the upward trajectory.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart show the 43.98–44.06 level as a key area of resistance, coinciding with the 23.6%–38.2% retracement levels. A break above this zone could extend the rally toward 44.40. On the daily chart, the 44.06 level also appears to be a potential pivot point, aligning with recent swing highs.

Patterns and Structure

The price action formed a bullish continuation pattern in the early morning hours, with a long upper wick at 44.06 followed by a close near the high, indicative of strong buying pressure. A potential bullish engulfing pattern emerged after a consolidation phase near 43.91–43.88, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend.

Looking ahead, a sustained close above 44.06 could lead to a test of 44.40, but traders should watch for signs of overextension, particularly with RSI in overbought territory. A failure to hold above 43.94 may trigger a retracement. Investors should remain cautious of potential corrections as the market digests the recent gains.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical profile and recent bullish structure, a backtest using a "hold until next resistance" strategy could provide valuable insight into its profitability. The most practical approach appears to be using the 20-day swing high as the exit trigger — the highest close in the prior 20 sessions — which aligns with the concept of dynamic resistance in price action trading.

This method offers a rules-based, adaptive strategy that mirrors the recent 15-minute chart behavior. Entry signals could be based on Bullish Engulfing patterns on the daily chart, which we can detect for TRXJPY since 2022-01-01. For each entry, the exit would be triggered when the close of a daily candle meets or exceeds the highest close of the prior 20 days, or after a maximum of 20 trading days to avoid indefinite holding periods.

This approach could help quantify the effectiveness of trading breakouts and retests of swing highs in the TRXJPY pair, providing empirical evidence of whether the observed patterns yield a consistent edge.