Market Overview for TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) – 2025-10-10

• TRXJPY opened at 51.5, peaked at 51.68, and closed at 50.27, with a 24-hour low of 49.88.
• A sharp selloff unfolded after 15:00 ET, breaking below key support levels and accelerating toward 50.0.
• High volatility was evident in the final 5 hours, with price dropping from 51.31 to 50.0 in under 4 hours.
• Turnover surged to $12862.94 as TRON/Yen hit a 24-hour low, indicating increased market participation and panic selling.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 160000 ET, confirming the bearish momentum and lack of short-term buyers.

The TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) pair opened at 51.5 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 51.68 before falling to a 24-hour low of 49.88. At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10, the price closed at 50.27, indicating a strong bearish bias over the last 24 hours. Total volume for the period was 127,324.44 units, while notional turnover was approximately ¥10,160,608.36, showing significant trading activity during the selloff.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern near the 160000 ET timeframe, confirming the continuation of downward pressure. A doji appeared at 054500 ET near the 51.46 level, signaling indecision but failing to prevent the subsequent breakdown. Key support levels were observed at 51.31, 51.01, and 50.0. The breakdown of the 51.31 level led to a rapid descent toward the 49.88 level, indicating a high level of bearish conviction among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages appear to have aligned in a downward trajectory, suggesting that the long-term trend remains bearish for TRXJPY. Price has remained below all key moving averages for much of the 24-hour period, indicating that bullish momentum is currently lacking.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a consistent bearish divergence, with the histogram shrinking in intensity as the price continued to fall. The RSI moved into oversold territory (below 30) near the 49.88 level, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, without a clear reversal pattern or strong buying pressure, the RSI reading should be treated with caution, as oversold levels in a strong bear trend may not always result in a bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as the price fell, with the Bollinger Bands widening in the final hours of the 24-hour period. The price spent a significant portion of the day near or outside the lower Bollinger Band, reinforcing the bearish bias. A period of volatility contraction occurred before 0500 ET, suggesting potential for a breakout or reversal, but the subsequent bearish movement invalidated this possibility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, especially in the final 5 hours, with a massive 12,862.94 units traded as the price hit 50.0. This high volume confirmed the bearish breakout, as large volumes during declines often indicate strong conviction among sellers. The notional turnover also spiked, with a significant spike seen when the price broke the 50.0 level, indicating panic selling and a lack of buying interest to defend key levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 51.68 to 49.88, key levels include 51.48 (38.2%), 51.28 (50%), and 51.08 (61.8%). The price briefly bounced near the 51.28 level but failed to hold, indicating weak support at these retracement levels. On the daily chart, the 50-day Fibonacci retracement levels are currently not acting as strong support or resistance, but the 49.88 level may now serve as a short-term floor to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern and the strong volume confirmation near 160000 ET could be used as a backtest entry point for a short position. A stop-loss could be placed above the 51.53 level, which acted as a failed resistance during the prior hours. A target for the short trade could be the 50.0 level, which was ultimately hit before 160000 ET. Given the strong bearish momentum, the setup would likely benefit from a time limit of 4–6 hours to avoid exposure to potential overnight volatility.