Market Overview for TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) on 2025-10-03

• TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) rose to ¥50.96 before consolidating near ¥50.88–50.92.
• Price formed a bullish breakout followed by a pullback within Bollinger Bands.
• Volatility surged during the early morning UTC push but subsided by afternoon.
• RSI showed overbought conditions during the rally, suggesting potential reversal.
• Volume spiked during key price moves, confirming trend strength and reversal attempts.

The TRON/Yen pair (TRXJPY) opened at ¥50.37 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of ¥50.96 before closing at ¥50.88 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The 24-hour candle closed with a bullish close of ¥50.88, up ¥0.51 from open. The total volume traded over the period was 201,182.57 TRX, with a notional turnover of ¥10,237,809.36.

Price action unfolded with a sharp rally during the overnight session, peaking at ¥50.96 before a consolidation phase developed between ¥50.88 and ¥50.92. The move exhibited a bearish engulfing pattern after the high, suggesting potential short-term resistance. A key support level appears at ¥50.64–50.70, with a resistance cluster forming between ¥50.88 and ¥50.96.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bullish, supporting the overnight move, but the 50-period line began to flatten as the rally slowed. The daily chart shows the price above the 50, 100, and 200-day lines, reinforcing a long-term positive bias. However, the 20-period line may act as a short-term support during pullbacks.

The RSI reached overbought levels during the morning UTC rally, peaking near 70 before declining to mid-60s by the close, suggesting some exhaustion in the bullish momentum. MACD crossed into positive territory during the overnight rally, but the histogram began to narrow, indicating weakening upward momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a clear expansion during the rally, with price closing near the upper band—suggesting a potential correction or consolidation phase may be near.

Volume spiked significantly during the price break above ¥50.90, confirming the strength of the move. However, during the consolidation phase, volume declined, indicating reduced conviction in the trend. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with higher values coinciding with bullish breaks and lower turnover during pullbacks. Divergence between price and volume suggests caution for further upside.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute rally indicate potential support at 61.8% (¥50.88), and resistance at 38.2% (¥50.92). On the daily chart, a key 61.8% retracement level at ¥50.70 appears to be a critical test for the near-term trend. If price fails to hold above this level, a deeper retracement toward ¥50.50–50.60 may follow.

Looking ahead, TRON/Yen could continue to consolidate within the ¥50.80–50.95 range over the next 24 hours, with a potential test of ¥50.96 for a new high. However, a drop below ¥50.80 could trigger a retest of ¥50.64–50.70. Investors should remain cautious for a potential short-term reversal as overbought conditions and waning volume suggest a possible pause in the rally.