Market Overview for TRON/XRP (TRXXRP) on 2025-10-05

• TRON/XRP (TRXXRP) opened at 0.1154 and closed at 0.1136, with a 24-hour high of 0.1156 and low of 0.1119.
• Price dropped into a consolidation phase after a sharp decline in overnight trading, with no significant bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours, but volume remained uneven, with key selling pressure noted after 21:00 ET.
• RSI showed oversold conditions briefly in the early morning, but lacked follow-through buying to reverse the downtrend.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during consolidation, suggesting potential for a breakout or continuation of the bearish bias.

TRON/XRP (TRXXRP) opened at 0.1154 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1136 on 2025-10-05 at the same time. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 0.1156 and a low of 0.1119. Total volume was 227,074.0, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 26,134.4, assuming a base unit of 1 TRON/XRP = 0.1136 for the calculation. The session was defined by bearish momentum in the overnight hours and a lack of follow-through buying into oversold levels.

Structure & Formations

The price structure on the 15-minute chart revealed key support at 0.1134-0.1136 and resistance at 0.1145-0.1148, both of which were tested multiple times. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the candle ending at 0.1124 at 07:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment to the downside. A doji appeared near the low at 0.1119 at 08:00 ET, signaling potential exhaustion in the downtrend. A bullish hammer was observed at 09:45 ET but failed to break through the 0.1133 psychological level, suggesting weak conviction in buyers.

Moving Averages and Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both fell below the price, supporting a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remained above the 200-period MA, indicating a broader bullish bias, though the 100-period MA has crossed below the 50-period MA, hinting at a near-term correction. MACD remained in negative territory with bearish divergence, while RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 at 05:00 ET, failing to trigger a meaningful rebound. These signals suggest a temporary pause in selling pressure but no reversal in the near term.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands tightened between 0.1129 and 0.1136 during the early morning consolidation phase, which could suggest a potential breakout or breakdown. Price remained within the lower half of the bands for most of the session, indicating a bearish bias. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.1156 high and 0.1119 low showed key levels at 0.1136 (61.8%) and 0.1145 (38.2%). A test of the 61.8% level appears likely if the current consolidation breaks down further.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked significantly during the overnight hours, particularly between 21:00 and 03:00 ET, coinciding with sharp declines from 0.1156 to 0.1132. This high volume during the selloff confirmed bearish pressure, while low volume during the consolidation phase suggested a lack of conviction. Notional turnover also increased during the early part of the session, aligning with the downward move. However, a divergence appeared after 07:30 ET, with high volume not translating into a lower price, indicating potential for a near-term consolidation or a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current price structure and indicators, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on TRXXRP when RSI dips below 30 and confirms with a bearish engulfing pattern, with a stop above the previous candle’s high. A long bias could be considered on a breakout above 0.1145 with confirmation via a bullish engulfing pattern. This approach aligns with the observed Fibonacci retracement levels and volatility expansion observed in the Bollinger Bands.