Market Overview for TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) – 2025-09-22

• TRXUSDT broke below key support at 0.3400, hitting 0.3340 before partial recovery.
• Volatility surged as the 24-hour range hit 0.3421–0.3340 (~2.38% swing).
• Turnover spiked to $1.06B, with volume-driven bearish momentum seen after 20:00 ET.
• A long lower shadow at 0.3340 hints at short-term accumulation.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions below 30 after 04:00 ET, but price failed to rebound meaningfully.

TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) opened at 0.3439 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3408 by 2025-09-22 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 0.3446 (high) and 0.3340 (low), with total volume reaching ~559.5 million TRX and a notional turnover of approximately $1.06 billion.

The price action over the 24-hour period was marked by a sharp bearish breakdown from key support levels. A significant sell-off began around 00:45 ET, as the price gapped down below the 0.3400 psychological level, hitting a 24-hour low of 0.3340. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern around 00:45 ET displayed a long lower shadow and a small body at 0.3340–0.3345, hinting at short-term accumulation. However, a series of bearish harami patterns formed in the early hours of 2025-09-22, suggesting ongoing selling pressure. Support levels around 0.3380 and 0.3350 appeared critical, with 0.3340 acting as a temporary floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearishly aligned, with the price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average was around 0.3412, and the 200-period at 0.3445, with the current price trading well below both. This suggests a bearish medium-term bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 22:00 ET and remained bearish through 12:00 ET, with the histogram showing strong bearish momentum. The RSI hit oversold levels below 30 multiple times after 00:00 ET, though the price failed to mount a convincing rebound, indicating weak conviction in the short-term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off from 00:45–02:00 ET, with the price hitting the lower Bollinger Band at 0.3340. The bands remained wide through 04:00 ET, indicating elevated uncertainty and risk of further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 29 million TRX around 00:45 ET, coinciding with the breakdown to 0.3340. Turnover surged to ~$102 million in that candle, indicating strong bearish participation. The divergence between volume and price in the 04:00–06:00 ET window suggested a potential exhaustion of sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 24-hour high (0.3446) to low (0.3340) swing, the price tested the 61.8% level at 0.3386 in the morning of 2025-09-22, failing to hold. The 50% retracement at 0.3393 served as a temporary floor but was also broken in the afternoon.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish breakdown and oversold RSI divergence suggest a potential test of key support at 0.3325 and 0.3300 in the next 24 hours. A backtest using a short signal triggered by a bearish crossover of the 50- and 20-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI below 30, would be worth evaluating for intraday or swing traders. Given the recent volatility and strong bearish momentum, this setup appears more robust in a bearish environment than in a bullish one.