Market Overview: Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) on 2025-11-12

• Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) closed below its 12:00 ET open, amid bearish momentum and waning volatility.• Volume surged during the early hours, but price action diverged negatively, hinting at profit-taking.• A potential support zone developed near 0.1515-0.1520, with a retest of 0.1550-0.1555 resistance ahead.

24-Hour Snapshot

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at 0.1582 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1559 by 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, registering a low of 0.1513 and a high of 0.1573 over the 24-hour window. Total volume traded was 2,537,365.8 units, with notional turnover amounting to $390,815.4.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a descending pattern with multiple bearish engulfing candles in the early morning hours. A doji emerged near the 0.1548 level, indicating indecision. Key support levels have formed at 0.1515 and 0.1520, while resistance clusters at 0.1550–0.1555 and 0.1560–0.1565 appear significant for potential retests.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum on the 15-minute chart is bearish, with the 20SMA and 50SMA trending downward. On the daily chart, the 50DMA remains above the 100DMA and 200DMA, suggesting intermediate-term bearish bias, but a crossover event has yet to occur.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and continues to contract, aligning with the bearish price action. RSI has dipped below 30 during the overnight session, signaling oversold conditions and a potential short-term reversal. However, RSI remains below 40, suggesting bearish sentiment persists.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly overnight as prices traded near the lower band, with several candles closing below it. This suggests heightened uncertainty and possible short-term buying interest at lower levels. A contraction in the bands is yet to form, which may signal a potential reversal if it occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning hours, coinciding with the breakdown to 0.1513. However, price did not confirm with a strong rebound, suggesting a possible divergence. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest notional trade occurring at 0.1519. The bearish divergence between volume and price suggests caution for near-term buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent swing from 0.1573 to 0.1513, key retracement levels are at 0.1542 (38.2%) and 0.1558 (61.8%). The price has stalled near 0.1558 in the last 24 hours, indicating it may be a critical level for retesting. A sustained move above 0.1565 could invalidate the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent RSI dip below 30, a potential backtesting hypothesis involves triggering buy signals when RSI < 30 and holding for one day. This strategy would be evaluated from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12, focusing on how frequently oversold conditions led to subsequent price rebounds. The hypothesis aligns with the observed Fibonacci retracement levels and current Bollinger Band positioning, suggesting a structured approach to capturing short-term bounces.