Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) on 2025-10-14

• Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) fell 5.2% in 24 hours, closing near a 24-hour low of $0.1656
• Key support near $0.166–$0.167 appears tested, with bearish momentum intensifying in the second half of the day
• Volatility increased after 6:45 AM ET, with a sharp drop to $0.164 and a 500k+ volume candle at the low
• RSI moved into oversold territory (<30), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or reversal • MACD remains bearish with negative divergence, but Bollinger Bands show a potential for a reversion trade

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at $0.1813 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13 and closed at $0.1685 by 12:00 ET the next day, with a high of $0.1856 and a low of $0.164. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 13,130,514.9, and notional turnover reached approximately $2,168,655. The price action reflects a strong bearish bias, particularly after a key drop began around 5:45 AM ET.

Structure & Formations

Treehouse/Tether experienced a clear breakdown from earlier resistance levels near $0.179–$0.180, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming between 5:45 AM and 6:45 AM ET. A long bearish candle at 6:45 AM ET (closing at $0.1683) marked a sharp move into oversold territory. A bearish continuation pattern emerged as price failed to retest $0.170–$0.172 multiple times after 8:00 AM ET. A doji-like formation at $0.1685 around 12:00 PM ET suggests potential exhaustion at the short-term low.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price ended below the 20-EMA (~$0.1717) and 50-EMA (~$0.1726), confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA (~$0.1745), 100-day (~$0.1758), and 200-day (~$0.1762) all show a clear bearish bias. Price remains well below the key 200-day SMA, a bearish signal for longer-term participants.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned deeply negative during the late morning and midday selloff, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 and lingered in oversold territory, signaling a potential reversal or bounce near $0.166–$0.168. However, the RSI’s failure to rebound suggests that bearish pressure remains strong. MACD remains in a bearish divergence, with no sign of a reversal unless a strong rally occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the latter half of the day, particularly between 5:45 AM and 11:45 AM ET, suggesting that volatility was high and that price may find short-term support near $0.166–$0.168. A reversion trade to the mid-Band (~$0.170) could occur if buyers step in to close the gap, but this would require a reversal in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, with the largest 15-minute candle recording a volume of 1,298,711.3 at 6:45 AM ET. This candle was also associated with the largest single-move drop to $0.164. Turnover increased correspondingly, but no clear divergence emerged between volume and price action, indicating that the move was well supported by selling pressure. Turnover suggests the market was in the hands of bearish participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from $0.1856 (high at 5:45 AM ET) to $0.164 (low at 6:45 AM ET), the 23.6% retracement level is at $0.1735, the 38.2% at $0.1718, and the 61.8% at $0.1694. Price tested the 61.8% level twice between 7:15 AM and 11:45 AM ET but failed to hold. The 38.2% and 61.8% levels may serve as potential support if the price begins to stabilize.

Backtest Hypothesis

While the RSI moved into oversold territory, the market did not show a strong reversal, suggesting that the "RSI Oversold, hold 3 days" rule may not apply effectively to TREEUSDT. A typical backtest for such a strategy involves identifying when RSI < 30 and entering a long position for 3 days. However, in this case, the bearish momentum overpowered the technical signal, and the price continued to decline. For a more robust analysis, this strategy would need to be tested over a larger sample of TREEUSDT data or applied to a more liquid and stable pair, such as SPY or BTC/USDT.