Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) – 2025-09-27

• Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) traded in a 0.2666–0.2739 range, with bearish momentum resuming after a midday rebound.
• A bearish divergence emerged in RSI and volume during the final 6 hours, signaling potential exhaustion in the rally.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during peak volatility, while price hovered near the upper band before retreating.
• 24-hour volume reached 4.21 million, with turnover hitting $1.15 million, showing moderate liquidity.
• Key support at 0.2660–0.2655 was retested, but failed to hold during a high-volume breakdown in early afternoon ET.

The 24-hour period for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at 0.2660 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2674 on 2025-09-27 at 12:00 ET. The high and low for the period were 0.2739 and 0.2630, respectively. Total volume traded was 4.21 million, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $1.15 million. Price action reflected a bearish bias overall, punctuated by a midday rebound and a late afternoon retest of key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price structure displayed several key levels of significance. A descending triangle pattern emerged between the 0.2739 high and 0.2660–0.2655 support zone, with the breakdown occurring on high volume during the afternoon session. The pattern suggested a continuation of bearish momentum. A doji candle formed at 0.2706–0.2706, indicating indecision and potential reversal, but it was later consumed by a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming a return to selling pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) crossed below the 50-period SMA (SMA50), reinforcing bearish bias in the short term. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA (SMA50) sat below both the 100 and 200-period SMAs, indicating a medium-term bearish trend. The price closed below the 50 SMA at 0.2674, suggesting continued downside potential.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a narrowing of the bullish divergence after the midday rebound, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern. The RSI indicator, which briefly entered overbought territory above 70 during the afternoon rally, later dropped to 52–55, reflecting a return to neutral to bearish conditions. A bearish divergence between price and RSI in the final 6 hours suggested weakening bullish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the afternoon trading session as volatility increased, with price reaching the upper band at 0.2739 before retreating. The narrowing of the bands in the early morning session suggested a period of consolidation prior to the breakout. The closing price of 0.2674 placed it within the lower half of the bands, indicating bearish pressure and a potential retest of the 0.2655 support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained elevated throughout the session, peaking at 249,576 on a 15-minute bar during the breakdown phase. Notional turnover increased in tandem with volume, confirming the strength of the bearish move. A divergence between rising volume and declining price during the final 3 hours of the session suggested a potential exhaustion phase, though a definitive reversal signal was not yet formed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.2739 to 0.2630, the 38.2% level at 0.2693 and 61.8% at 0.2658 acted as key resistance and support, respectively. The 61.8% level at 0.2658 was retested twice, with the final test failing to hold, increasing the probability of a continuation of the downtrend. On the daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement of the broader bearish move resides near 0.2630, a level that could offer strong support if tested.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves a short-biased approach triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a breakdown below the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart. The strategy targets entry at the close of the engulfing candle with a stop above the high and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given today’s price action, the strategy would have entered a short trade around 0.2706 with a stop at 0.2710 and a target at 0.2658. This aligns with the observed breakdown, bearish divergence in RSI, and confirmed pattern, offering a high-probability trade setup. The strategy could be refined by including volume as a confirmation filter—only entering trades on high-volume bars to increase confidence in the signal.