Market Overview for Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) – 2025-09-17

• • Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) traded in a tight range for much of the 24-hour period, failing to break above 0.3165 or below 0.3072.
• • A late-night sell-off pushed price to a session low of 0.3072, but buyers stepped in to stabilize near 0.3085–0.3090.
• • Volume spiked in the early morning and late night, with the highest turnover between 22:15–23:45 ET and 08:15–09:45 ET.
• • RSI briefly entered oversold territory (30s), suggesting short-term bearish exhaustion, while MACD remained negative, hinting at unresolved bearish momentum.

The Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) pair opened at 0.3109 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 0.3176 and a low of 0.3046 before closing at 0.3094 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour trading volume was 16,176,830.9 and notional turnover amounted to approximately $5,047,389.3 (at an average rate of ~$0.311).

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a range-bound pattern throughout the day, with multiple attempts to retest the 0.3165–0.3176 resistance cluster failing in the early hours. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 22:45–00:00 ET, confirming the breakdown of the 0.315–0.316 support level. A bullish reversal pattern emerged after 08:45–10:00 ET as buyers stepped in between 0.3085–0.3093, forming a small double bottom. The key support and resistance levels over the 24-hour period were:

• Support 1: 0.3090–0.3093 (tested multiple times, most recently at 12:00 ET)
• Support 2: 0.3072–0.3080 (tested at 08:45–09:00 ET)
• Resistance 1: 0.3101–0.3111 (tested in early morning and after 10:00 ET)
• Resistance 2: 0.3125–0.3130 (tested at 16:30–17:00 ET and again in early morning)

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed the 20-period EMA above the 50-period EMA for most of the day, with the 50 EMA acting as a dynamic resistance around 0.3111–0.3116. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA was at approximately 0.3125, and the 200-period SMA was near 0.3160, indicating a bearish bias. The price closed below both 50 and 200-day averages, signaling a continuation of the short-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained below the signal line for the majority of the session, with a negative divergence forming between price and momentum around 08:00–10:00 ET. RSI reached oversold levels in the 30s during the sell-off between 09:00–10:00 ET but failed to close above 40, indicating unresolved bearish pressure. A bullish divergence was noted around 10:15–11:00 ET as RSI crossed up from the 30s while price found a floor at 0.3085–0.3090.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the late-night sell-off (22:15–00:00 ET) with the bands widening as the low of 0.3046 was hit. Price remained in the lower half of the bands for most of the session, and the 20-period Bollinger Band centerline acted as a resistance at 0.3105–0.3110. A contraction was observed between 06:00–07:00 ET as the price traded within a narrow range, suggesting a potential breakout or continuation move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was elevated in two distinct clusters: one between 22:15–00:00 ET (notional turnover of ~$1.6M) and another between 08:15–09:45 ET (~$1.4M). The volume during the late-night sell-off confirmed bearish momentum, but the morning session showed increased buying interest despite lower volume, suggesting order flow imbalances. A divergence between price and volume was observed around 10:00–11:00 ET as price rose but volume declined, indicating possible exhaustion in the short-term buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the 0.3046–0.3176 swing (09/16–09/17) were:

• 61.8%: ~0.3106 (tested at 07:30–09:00 ET)
• 50%: ~0.3110 (tested at 06:15–07:30 ET)
• 38.2%: ~0.3125 (tested at 16:30–17:00 ET)

On the 15-minute chart, price found support at the 61.8% retracement level (0.3106) after 10:00 ET and again at 0.3094–0.3101 during the 11:00–13:00 ET period.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.3106) with confirmation from a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., a hammer or bullish engulfing) and increasing volume. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 0.3090–0.3093 support level, with a take-profit target at the 50% Fibonacci level (0.3110) or the 20-period EMA (~0.3111). This approach aligns with the observed price action where buyers stepped in at 0.3090–0.3094, and the RSI showed a bullish divergence.