Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC): October 4, 2025 – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• CHESSUSDC opened at $0.06323 and closed at $0.06045, down 4.43% in 24 hours.
• Price dropped sharply during the late USDC session with a 6.8% swing from $0.06206 to $0.05996.
• Notable bearish divergence seen in volume and price during the 15:45–16:00 ET window.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded significantly from $0.06091 to $0.06201 in the early AM hours.

Opening Summary

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at $0.06323 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at $0.06045 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached a high of $0.06401 and a low of $0.05996, with total volume of 239,763.2 and turnover of $14,639.7 over the 24-hour period. The price action shows a bearish bias, especially during the evening and overnight trading sessions.

Structure & Formations

Price action for CHESSUSDC displayed a bearish breakdown from a key support level at $0.06162, confirmed by a large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart. A bearish engulfing pattern was seen at $0.06206–$0.06236, signaling continued selling pressure. Additionally, the formation of a doji at $0.0634 and a long lower wick at $0.0609–$0.06161 indicated indecision and potential exhaustion on the sell side.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a death cross, reinforcing the bearish momentum. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be falling below the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend. Traders may watch for a potential bounce around the 50-period MA on the daily chart as a short-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line at the start of the 24-hour period, confirming the bearish momentum. The RSI dipped to the 30–35 range in the final hours, signaling possible oversold conditions. While this could suggest a bounce, caution is warranted as the RSI has remained in bearish territory for much of the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the late USDC session, with price dipping below the lower Bollinger Band for a brief period. The bands had previously been in a narrow contraction, indicating a potential breakout scenario that ultimately worked in favor of sellers. Traders may look to the upper band at $0.06213 as a key resistance level to watch for a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 15:45–16:00 ET session (1945–2000 UTC), with a large candle closing at $0.06045. This volume spike aligned with a sharp price drop, confirming bearish momentum. However, turnover declined during the early AM hours despite continued price declines, suggesting a potential divergence that could signal a near-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.06206 to $0.05996, the 38.2% retracement is at $0.06067, and the 61.8% retracement is at $0.06112. These levels may provide short-term support for a possible bounce. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the previous major swing appears at $0.06233, which could be a key resistance level to watch in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be constructed around the bearish engulfing pattern seen on October 3 at $0.06206–$0.06236. A sell entry at $0.0623 with a stop-loss at $0.0626 and a take-profit at $0.0616 aligns with the subsequent price action and volatility seen in the following hours. Given the MACD crossover and RSI divergence, this could form the basis of a short-term bearish strategy for the next 24-hour cycle. The RSI oversold condition may also provide an opportunity to test a long entry at $0.0605 with a tight stop at $0.0603, targeting a retest of the $0.0610 level.