Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) – November 7, 2025

Summary
• Tranchess/USDC rose from 0.0399 to 0.04275 in 24 hours, showing strong upward momentum.
• Key resistance appears at 0.04072 and 0.04258 after multiple stalls and breakouts.
• High-volume bull moves in the last 12 hours suggest renewed institutional interest.

The Tranchess/USDC pair (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.0399 on November 6 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.04275 on November 7 at the same time. The 24-hour high was 0.04275, and the low was 0.03954. Over the past day, total trading volume reached 96,725.9 USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately $4,058.95, assuming a $1 USDC value.

Structure & Formations

The price structure for CHESSUSDC shows a clear upward bias over the 24-hour period, with a base forming between 0.03954 and 0.03972. The pair then surged past 0.04072 and found a temporary ceiling at 0.04258, where it consolidated. A potential breakout to the upside appears likely if volume remains strong, with 0.04258 acting as a key short-term resistance level. A bullish engulfing pattern is visible around 2025-11-06 22:15 and again at 0.04102, indicating buying pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending upwards, with the 20-period MA above the 50-period, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are not available with 15-minute data, but the 50-period MA appears to be crossing above the 100-period MA, hinting at a potential intermediate-term bullish crossover.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned positive, crossing above the signal line, and is trending upward, reinforcing bullish momentum. The RSI is currently at 62, suggesting the asset is not yet overbought. However, as the RSI approaches 65, traders may begin to watch for signs of overextension.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading near the upper Bollinger Band for much of the last 12 hours, indicating strong upward volatility. The bands have expanded, reflecting growing uncertainty and volatility. The current price of 0.04275 is within the upper third of the Bollinger Band range, which is a sign of potential overextension and could signal a near-term pullback unless volume justifies the move.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spikes occurred during the late-night and early morning hours, particularly at 0.04102 and 0.04258, when large buyers pushed the price higher. The notional turnover also surged during this period, with a large block of 26,232.5 USDC traded at 0.04167, indicating strong institutional participation. Price and volume appear to be aligned, suggesting a valid bullish breakout rather than a false one.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 0.03954 to 0.04275, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels currently sit at around 0.04106 and 0.04198 respectively. The price is currently above the 61.8% level, suggesting it is in overbought territory and could face resistance if it fails to maintain above 0.04258.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine the analysis and validate the bullish momentum observed, a backtest using the raw OHLC data could be implemented locally. The data provided is sufficient for such an analysis, and by detecting candlestick patterns (such as bullish engulfing or morning star) directly from the time-series, we could better understand the historical context of price behavior. This would also allow us to test the reliability of these patterns as entry or exit signals. If this approach is taken, we would likely see confirmation of key support/resistance levels and better timing for strategic entries.