Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) on 2025-10-31

• Tranchess/USDC traded in a tight range, with a small breakout attempt at the end of the day.
• Price action shows consolidation and low volatility through most of the day before a late rally.
• Volume spiked significantly in the 17:15–19:15 ET window, coinciding with a pullback in price.
• RSI and MACD suggest neutral momentum, with no overbought or oversold signals.
• Late-day rally may indicate short-term buying interest but lacks confirmation on broader support levels.

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.0412 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 0.0425 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0425 and a low of 0.04064 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 213,342.7 and turnover (notional value) was $8,997.25. Price action was largely range-bound until late in the session when it broke out toward the upper end of the day’s range.

Structure and key levels were defined by the 0.0412–0.04152 range, which acted as a magnet for price action for much of the day. A notable break above 0.04152 occurred in the 23:30–00:00 ET window, forming a bullish continuation pattern. A small bearish reversal was attempted at the open of the next trading day, but buyers retook control by 01:00–04:15 ET. The 0.04064–0.04102 level acted as a strong support zone, with price bouncing twice from this range. A doji formed at 0.04102 at 22:45 ET, signaling indecision before a breakout.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, indicating a lack of directional bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish baseline. MACD crossed into positive territory in the late session, confirming the breakout in price. RSI remained in the 40–60 range for most of the day, indicating moderate momentum but no extreme overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands showed a tightening contraction during the early session, followed by an expansion as price broke out of the range. Price closed near the upper band, suggesting potential for a short-term rally. Volume spiked in the 17:15–19:15 ET window during the pullback and again in the 03:15–05:15 ET window as the rally gained momentum. Notional turnover increased in step with volume, confirming the breakout attempt. Fibonacci retracement levels on the 0.04064–0.04152 swing showed price reaching the 78.6% level at 0.0413 before a final push to the 100% level at 0.04152.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy relies on the identification of Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns, with positions held for three trading days. While the current dataset does not support full backtesting due to the unavailability of the CHESSUSDC ticker in the data provider’s system, the observed late-day rally and breakout above key support levels resemble the setup of a bullish engulfing pattern. Traders using this strategy might look to enter at the confirmation of a breakout above 0.04152, aligning with the described 3-day holding period. However, confirmation of the pattern and validation through a recognized ticker or alternate pair (e.g., CHESSUSDT) is required to proceed with a robust backtest.