Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) – 2025-10-11

• Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) fell sharply from $0.0588 to below $0.04726 in a 15-minute candle due to heavy selling pressure.
• Momentum shifted between bearish and bullish phases, with RSI hitting oversold levels below 25 before rebounding.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, with Bollinger Band expansion observed.
• Price formed a deep bearish engulfing pattern early in the session followed by a potential bullish reversal later.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels around 0.0405 and 0.0385 as potential support/resistance.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at $0.04012 after closing at $0.05822 at 12:00 ET the previous day. The 24-hour session traded between $0.05883 and $0.00577, with a final close at $0.04012. Total volume across the 24-hour window reached 1.898 million units, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $76,335.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a sharp bearish breakdown in the late evening of 2025-10-10, with a 15-minute candle gapping down from $0.0562 to $0.04726. This candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling strong selling pressure. Later, a bullish reversal pattern emerged as price rebounded from a low of $0.0373 and closed near $0.04012 at 12:00 ET. Key support levels identified include $0.0373 and $0.04012, while resistance levels are seen around $0.0405 and $0.04064.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both moved downward during the sharp selloff, confirming bearish momentum. By the end of the session, price began to approach the 20-period MA, suggesting potential accumulation. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears above the 200-period MA, but price remains below both, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong reversal is confirmed in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early selloff, confirming bearish momentum. It began to show a divergence with the price as the final hours of the session saw a price rebound without a corresponding strength in the MACD. The RSI dropped below 25, reaching oversold territory during the selloff, but recovered to the mid-40s by the close. This suggests exhaustion in the bearish move and a possible near-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the sharp drop in late evening, indicating increased volatility. Price bottomed near the lower band at $0.0373 before bouncing back toward the mid-band. This suggests that the selloff was extreme but potentially temporary. A sustained move above the upper band could signal a breakout from the bearish consolidation, though such a move would require significantly higher volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, with a single 15-minute candle at 21:00 ET accounting for 1,065,782 units traded, representing approximately 56% of the total 24-hour volume. The corresponding turnover of $58,735 highlights the depth of the bearish move. In the final hours, volume declined sharply despite a price rebound, indicating weak conviction in the recovery. This divergence between volume and price could suggest a potential false break higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were evident during the selloff and subsequent bounce. The 61.8% retracement of the $0.05822–$0.0373 move corresponds to $0.0405, which aligns with recent support levels and could act as a potential resistance on a rally. The 38.2% retracement at $0.0385 was tested twice, suggesting it could provide short-term support if the trend stabilizes.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when price closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level ($0.0405) with confirmation by the RSI exiting oversold territory and a bullish crossover in the MACD. A stop-loss could be placed just below $0.0373, and a profit target set at the upper Bollinger Band or the 78.6% retracement. This approach would align with the observed technical patterns and recent volatility expansion. Given the recent divergence in volume and the strength of key support levels, the setup has a moderate-to-high probability of success, particularly if the next 24 hours see increased institutional buying.