Market Overview for Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) on 2025-10-07

• Price dropped from 0.06376 to 0.05979 over 24 hours, closing at 0.06013
• Sharp bearish momentum in early morning ET, with a key bear trap at 0.06326
• Volatility expanded as price broke below Bollinger Band support
• Volume surged to $145.3M at 15:15 ET but failed to retest earlier lows
• RSI oversold territory confirmed exhaustion, though bounce attempts are likely

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.06376 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of 0.06401 and a low of 0.05979. As of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07, price closed at 0.06013. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was 679,181.0 with a notional turnover of approximately $41.98 million.

The price action over the past 24 hours reflected strong bearish pressure, especially between 05:00 and 09:00 ET, when the price dropped below key psychological and support levels. A significant bear trap formed at 0.06326 following a failed rebound attempt, followed by a sharp bearish breakout below the 0.0620 support level. This confirmed a shift in sentiment, with traders likely selling into strength at resistance levels, and the bearish move was supported by increasing volume.

Notable candlestick patterns included a large bearish engulfing pattern between 08:45 and 09:00 ET, a doji near the 0.06164 level suggesting indecision, and a long bearish tail at the 0.06361 high indicating rejection. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in a strong bearish crossover, with the 50-period MA acting as a dynamic resistance. The 50-period daily MA currently stands above the 100 and 200-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias.

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MACD turned bearish with a strong negative crossover, and RSI dropped into oversold territory (<30) near 0.05979, suggesting a potential bounce in the near term. The 15-minute RSI briefly retested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.0612, but failed to find buyers above the 0.06197 level. Bollinger Bands showed a clear volatility expansion, with price trading significantly below the lower band, confirming extreme bearish momentum. Price is now consolidating near the 0.06013 level, with the next support target at 0.0595 and a potential resistance at 0.0617.

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A backtest hypothesis based on these signals could involve a mean-reversion strategy triggered by RSI entering oversold territory and a bullish crossover in the 15-minute MACD. This would aim to capture short-term rebounds from key support levels, such as the 0.0595 or 0.0604 levels. Stops could be placed below the next swing low, while targets would aim for a 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high. Given the current volatility and sentiment, this strategy could be tested with a 4-hour time horizon for entry confirmation and a 12-hour target for exit.

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