Market Overview for Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY)

• TOWNSTRY dropped from 0.693 to 0.487, losing ~30% amid declining volume.
• Key support tested at 0.475 and 0.451; RSI indicates oversold conditions.
• Volatility spiked during the overnight selloff, with a low of 0.069.
• Price action suggests bearish continuation unless 0.485 holds.
• MACD and 20SMA confirm bearish momentum; Fibonacci levels at 0.473 and 0.445 may offer near-term resistance/support.

15-Minute OHLC Summary

The TOWNSTRY pair opened at 0.687 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.487 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The price peaked at 0.693 and bottomed at 0.069, reflecting a dramatic 30% drawdown. Total 24-hour volume was 75,834,545.0, with a total notional turnover of approximately 38,719,157.2 (based on TOWNSTRY volume-weighted average price).

Structure & Formations

The price action showed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and long-tailed doji formations, particularly after 19:30 ET when the price collapsed from 0.664 to 0.393. A strong breakdown occurred around the 0.50 level, confirming a key bearish structural shift. The low of 0.069 marked an extreme volatility expansion, suggesting panic selling.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, TOWNSTRY closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, a similar divergence appears with the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages all trending lower and acting as resistance. The price has not closed above the 200SMA in over a week, adding to bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, with the histogram showing a sharp bearish divergence. RSI fell into oversold territory (<30) by the 09:45 ET period, suggesting potential exhaustion in the selloff. However, without a strong reversal candle above 0.50, this could signal a consolidation or further decline.

Bollinger Bands

Price action broke well below the lower band during the selloff, indicating a sharp contraction in volatility followed by an explosive expansion. The bands widened significantly during the drop, particularly in the period between 21:30 and 22:30 ET. The close of 0.487 sits near the lower band on the 15-minute chart, suggesting further downside risk if volume increases.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sell-off, particularly around the 21:30–22:30 ET period, with a single candle recording a volume of 5.3M, the highest in the 24-hour window. This aligns with the price move from 0.549 to 0.393. Turnover also surged during the same period, reinforcing the conviction of the move. A divergence between price and volume is observed later in the session, suggesting weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 0.475 level (38.2% retracement from 0.069 to 0.487) appears to be a key support. The 61.8% retracement at 0.451 has also held well. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels suggest a possible near-term bounce at 0.473 and a deeper support at 0.445. A break below 0.445 could bring in more aggressive stop-loss selling.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves using Fibonacci levels in conjunction with MACD divergence and RSI readings to identify potential reversal points in volatile crypto pairs like TOWNSTRY. Given today’s sharp selloff and subsequent oversold RSI, a buy signal could be triggered upon a close above the 0.473 Fibonacci level with a bullish MACD crossover. If this strategy is applied, the pair would need to show a clear reversal candle and volume confirmation above the 0.473 level for the trade to be valid.