Market Overview for Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY) - 2025-11-05

• Price formed a bullish reversal pattern late in the session after a deep correction.
• Volatility surged midday before stabilizing near 0.385.
• RSI suggested oversold conditions as volume spiked at the 0.369 level.

Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY) opened at 0.388 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.390, dipped to a low of 0.364, and closed at 0.385 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 18,247,558.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $5,894,644 (0.385 closing rate assumed).

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed a bearish breakdown and a late-day bullish rebound, forming a potential harami-like structure near the 0.381–0.385 range. Key support levels emerged at 0.375–0.376, where price tested twice and bounced. Resistance appeared at 0.384–0.385, consolidating the final hour of the session. A doji formed at the 0.385 level at 06:30 ET, indicating indecision. The overall pattern suggests buyers are starting to take control after a deep correction.

Moving Averages

Shorter 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price late in the morning, confirming bearish momentum, but the 20-line pulled back to cross above the 50-line by the evening, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits below the 100 and 200-period lines, maintaining a bearish bias in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed divergence during the midday decline, with a bearish crossover followed by a bullish one as buyers pushed prices back up. The RSI bottomed in the 25–30 range during the 0.369–0.370 test, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a bounce. RSI closed the session at ~40, suggesting neutrality and a possible continuation of consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Price briefly broke below the lower band at 0.369–0.370, indicating heightened volatility during the midday correction. The bounce back into the band channel suggested a potential rebound. The band width was wider than average in the afternoon, implying the market was in a period of expansion after a period of contraction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 2,710,533 at 20:15 ET and again to 1,855,573 at 08:45 ET, confirming key support at 0.369 and 0.380, respectively. Turnover aligned with volume surges, particularly in the 0.369–0.375 and 0.380–0.385 ranges, suggesting strong conviction. Price and turnover moved in tandem during these moves, increasing the likelihood of a successful rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from 0.388 to 0.369 showed key retracement levels at 38.2% (0.378) and 61.8% (0.375), both of which were tested and held. On the daily chart, 61.8% retracement from the recent swing high appears at ~0.382–0.385, aligning with the 15-minute consolidation range and strengthening its significance as a potential pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on the bullish harami pattern, where TOWNSTRY is bought when this pattern forms and held for five days, showed a 70% success rate with an average return of 1.87% per trade and a cumulative return of 9.29% since 2022. The 15-minute pattern observed today near 0.381–0.385 could signal a potential setup for this strategy, assuming the 5-day hold period sees a follow-through in buying momentum.