Market Overview for Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY) – 2025-10-31

• TOWNSTRY opened at 0.436 and closed at 0.446, with a 24-hour high of 0.452 and low of 0.419
• Price consolidated between 0.421 and 0.448, with multiple attempts to break above 0.450
• RSI overbought above 65, indicating potential near-term reversal or consolidation
• Volume surged at 0.447 and 0.452, suggesting key price discovery
• Bollinger Bands expanded late in the session, reflecting rising volatility

Towns/Turkish Lira (TOWNSTRY) opened at 0.436 (12:00 ET - 1), traded as high as 0.452 and as low as 0.419, and closed at 0.446 (12:00 ET) over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 10.1 million units, with a notional turnover of approximately 4.45 million USD, indicating active but uneven price discovery.

The 15-minute OHLC data shows a consolidative pattern with key support at 0.421 and resistance at 0.447–0.452. The price appears to have found short-term strength above 0.445 following a bullish reversal at 0.442. A 20-period EMA sat just below 0.445, while the 50-period EMA provided a mid-term reference point. The 200-period EMA remains distant, indicating medium-term divergence. The 50/20 EMA crossover near 0.445 may suggest a potential short-term breakout or continuation.

MACD showed a flattening histogram with a zero-cross near 0.445–0.447, suggesting weakening momentum but no clear divergence. RSI hit overbought levels (65–70) above 0.447, raising the risk of a pullback in the next 24 hours. The Bollinger Band width increased late in the session, especially after 04:15 ET, as the price moved into the upper band, reflecting rising volatility and a potential turning point.

Volume spiked at 0.447 and 0.452, aligning with price consolidation. A volume divergence emerged at 0.447–0.452 where the price advanced but volume declined, which could signal short-term exhaustion. Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing low of 0.419 and swing high of 0.452 show key levels at 0.438 (38.2%) and 0.446 (61.8%), both of which were recently tested and held.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed strategy involves detecting a daily Hammer pattern (with a 40% lower shadow and a closed body above the midpoint) as an entry signal and exiting upon reaching a defined resistance level. Given the recent 24-hour behavior, using a 20-day look-back for identifying pivot highs seems appropriate. The 0.447–0.452 range appears to be forming a new resistance level, making this a viable candidate for exit signals. Using a fixed look-back of 20 days for resistance will automate the process effectively. If this approach is accepted, the backtest will use daily close prices for pattern detection, next day’s open for entry, and the first close above the pivot high as the exit point. No additional stop-loss or take-profit parameters will be used unless specified. With this framework, we can assess the strategy’s effectiveness from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-31.