Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether USDt (TONUSDT) on 2025-09-11

• • •
• Price surged from $3.118 to $3.228, then retracted to close at $3.183 by 12:00 ET.
• Strong bullish momentum early, but bearish reversal followed with increased volume.
• RSI overbought near 75, later retreated into neutral zone.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during peak volatility, then contraction.
• Final candlestick closed below mid-band, suggesting potential bearish pressure.

15-Minute OHLCV Snapshot

Toncoin/Tether USDt (TONUSDT) opened at $3.13 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $3.228, and closed at $3.183 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11. Total volume reached 1,302,268.27 TON, with a notional turnover of $4,132,684.63. The price moved through key levels and displayed a volatile, but ultimately bearish, close.

Structure & Formations

A sharp bullish move pushed the price from $3.146 to $3.228, forming a bullish engulfing pattern on the early morning candles. This was quickly reversed with a bearish shooting star pattern and a doji near $3.207, indicating indecision. Support levels formed at $3.190, $3.175, and $3.160, while resistance levels emerged at $3.205, $3.220, and $3.230.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed above the price during the bullish breakout, but later fell below it, signaling a potential bearish reversal. On the daily chart (projected from the 15-min data), the 50/100/200-day SMAs would likely be lagging the current price, with the 200-day likely below the current range, indicating a mixed trend with short-term bullish action but longer-term neutrality.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line surged during the bullish phase, crossing above the signal line to form a potential buy signal, but then diverged as price declined, indicating weakening momentum. The RSI reached a high of 75, suggesting overbought conditions, and later retreated to 55, showing neutral momentum. A bearish crossover in the MACD is now in place, potentially confirming a reversal in short-term sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the bullish phase, especially between $3.190–3.210, indicating high volatility. The closing candle at $3.183 sits near the lower band, suggesting a possible pullback. A contraction in the band width after the high could indicate a period of consolidation before the next move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bullish breakout, with a 15-minute candle at $3.205 showing 208,374.4 TON in volume, the highest of the 24-hour period. However, the subsequent bearish reversal had a lower volume of 116,643.29 TON, indicating weaker conviction. The price and volume diverged during the reversal, suggesting that the bearish pressure was unconfirmed by strong volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent bullish swing from $3.146 to $3.228, the 38.2% level at $3.197 and the 61.8% level at $3.173 were tested. The price closed near the 61.8% retracement, suggesting a strong bearish reaction at that level. On the daily chart, similar Fibonacci levels would align with $3.185 and $3.167, with the current close near the key 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the engulfing pattern at $3.190, followed by a reversal candle at $3.207, which could serve as an entry signal. A short position could have been triggered on the shooting star and confirmed by the doji and a bearish MACD crossover. A stop-loss could be placed above $3.210, and a take-profit at $3.175 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This setup could be tested over prior 15-minute bullish breakouts for consistency and risk-reward ratio.