Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT): October 12, 2025

• TON/USDT declined from a 24-hour high of $2.224 to a low of $2.074, closing at $2.129 with bearish momentum.
• A bearish breakdown occurred below key support at $2.14, confirming a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally.
• Volatility spiked during the 24-hour period, with intraday range of 7.75% and a total volume of 7.35M USDT traded.
• MACD diverged from price during the selloff, signaling potential exhaustion, while RSI reached oversold levels near 30.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction near $2.10, followed by a breakout, suggesting a shift in short-term direction.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.199 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.129 on October 12 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between $2.074 (low) and $2.224 (high), with a total volume of 7.35 million USDT and a notional turnover of $15.63 million over the 24-hour period.

Structurally, the pair formed a bearish breakout below a key support level at $2.14, which aligned with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior upward swing. A large bearish candle on October 11 at 19:30 ET (closing at $2.14) and another on October 11 at 21:45 ET (closing at $2.058) confirmed distribution and capitulation. A morning rally on October 12, which pushed the price to a high of $2.156, failed to retest the $2.16–$2.17 range, which acted as initial overhead resistance.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line, indicating a strengthening short-term downtrend. The MACD histogram contracted during the early morning hours and turned negative, showing weakening bullish momentum, while the RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Band width, showed a notable contraction near $2.10 on October 12 morning, followed by a breakout to the downside, implying a resumption of bearish activity.

The price has found temporary support at $2.12–$2.13, which may hold for a while if the $2.10–$2.11 level does not fall under pressure. A breakout above $2.15 could signal a reversal, but this is unlikely without stronger volume confirmation. Caution is warranted in the next 24 hours, as the pair may face renewed selling pressure if key psychological levels are tested again.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages both moved lower on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20-period line crossed below the 50-period line, forming a death cross, a bearish signal for traders. Meanwhile, the 50-period line itself dipped below the 100-period and 200-period moving averages, suggesting a deeper bearish trend across timeframes.

MACD remained bearish, with a negative histogram and a flattening line, indicating that the bears are maintaining control but may be nearing a short-term peak in their pressure. RSI reached oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce could be on the horizon. However, as long as the price remains below the 20-period moving average and within the lower Bollinger Band, the bias remains to the downside. A recovery above $2.15 would be required for the RSI to move into neutral or overbought territory, which is unlikely unless a strong reversal candle appears.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in MACD and the RSI reaching oversold levels, a mean-reversion strategy could be backtested: entering a long position on a candle that closes above the 20-period MA with volume above the 20-period average and a confirmation candle the following period. This aligns with the current setup, where a rebound from the $2.12–$2.13 level appears likely, especially with a strong MACD divergence suggesting a potential reversal. However, given the ongoing bearish pressure and the lack of strong volume confirmation, this strategy would require a tight stop loss and a clear risk management framework. A backtest using historical 15-minute data should assess the win rate and risk-reward ratio of such a setup over the past several months to determine its robustness.