Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT)

Summary
• Price surged from 1.775 to 1.907 before retracing to 1.798, forming a potential bearish divergence.
• Volume spiked to 1.146M at 17:45 ET, coinciding with a strong bullish impulse, but later declined with price.
• RSI oscillated between overbought and oversold, highlighting volatile momentum shifts during the session.

Market Overview

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at 1.779 on 2026-01-02 12:00 ET, surged to 1.907, dipped to 1.784, and closed at 1.798 at 12:00 ET on 2026-01-03. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 18,830,766.21, with notional turnover of 33,716,115.75.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish candle at 17:45 ET (1.862–1.907), followed by a bearish inside bar at 19:45 ET (1.803–1.814). A potential bearish divergence emerged between price and RSI, suggesting caution.

Moving Averages

Short-term averages (20/50-period 5-min) crossed above key support zones during the rally but failed to hold, leading to a retest at 1.794. Daily 50/200-period MA lines were not breached, keeping the mid-term trend neutral.

Momentum & Indicators

MACD showed bullish momentum during the 17:30–19:00 ET rally, followed by a bearish crossover at 20:00 ET. RSI hit overbought territory (80+) at 18:15 ET and oversold at 19:45 ET, reflecting heightened volatility and mixed signals.

Volatility & Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the 17:30–18:15 ET rally, indicating rising volatility. Price closed just above the lower band at 1.798, signaling a possible rebound, though a break below 1.790 could trigger further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked at 1.146M at 17:45 ET, confirming the bullish impulse. However, subsequent turnover declined despite continued price weakness, hinting at reduced conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 5-min swing from 1.814 to 1.907 saw a retest of 61.8% at 1.868 and 38.2% at 1.841, both of which failed to hold. On the daily chart, price is approaching the 38.2% retracement level of 1.845, which could act as a key near-term pivot.

The price may consolidate near 1.798–1.802 in the coming 24 hours, but a break below 1.790 could target the 1.785 level. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains high and trend direction is uncertain.