Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT)

• TONUSDT declined by -3.5% in 24 hours, closing at 3.150 from 3.262.
• Volatility and volume spiked mid-cycle, followed by a pullback.
• RSI signaled overbought at 75, but price failed to hold above 3.180.
• Price traded below both 50-period and 20-period moving averages.

24-Hour Price Action

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at 3.172 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET and traded as high as 3.194 before declining to a low of 3.132 on 2025-09-17 04:45 ET. The pair closed at 3.150 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. The 24-hour trading volume amounted to approximately 1,704,579.97 USD, while total turnover was 5.36 million USD.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish continuation pattern with a long upper shadow and a short lower tail at key resistance around 3.180–3.194, suggesting rejection. A doji formed at 2025-09-17 05:15 ET at 3.139, indicating indecision following the sharp pullback. Key support levels are identified at 3.150 and 3.132, with resistance at 3.180 and 3.194 based on the swing highs and lows of the past 15-minute interval.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearish, crossing below key price action. The 20 MA currently sits at ~3.161 and the 50 MA at ~3.167, both above the 12:00 ET close. This suggests short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are also bearish, confirming a broader bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has crossed below the signal line, with a bearish crossover and negative histogram, suggesting continued momentum to the downside. RSI reached overbought levels at 75 and has since dropped to 47, indicating a potential pullback may be in progress. Overbought readings earlier in the cycle failed to trigger a reversal, suggesting bearish pressure is strong.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent most of the 24-hour window within the Bollinger Bands, with volatility increasing as the bands widened during the early morning hours (2025-09-17 01:00–04:45 ET). Price closed near the lower band at 3.132–3.150, suggesting a possible rebound or consolidation may occur.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the late-night hours as price fell from 3.180 to 3.132. A divergence appears between price and volume in the final hour, as volume waned despite a sharp drop in price, signaling potential exhaustion in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels of 38.2% (3.168) and 61.8% (3.146) were tested and failed. Price closed below the 61.8% level at 3.146, indicating further downside could be in play. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent swing high of 3.262 and low of 3.132 also support a target at 3.106, though this may take several days to reach.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be designed around a short position triggered when the RSI falls below 40 and the 50-period moving average crosses below the 200-period MA (death cross). A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance level (3.180), while a target is set near the 61.8% Fibonacci level (3.146). This approach would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum while avoiding false breakouts by combining multiple indicators. Given the recent divergence in volume and the bearish MACD, the strategy has a higher probability of success in the next 24–48 hours if the 3.132 level is not broken again.