Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) – 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) surged to a 24-hour high of $2.773 but closed at $2.767 amid a volatile session.
• Strong bullish momentum seen in the afternoon with a sharp rally from $2.742 to $2.773 over 3 hours.
• Bollinger Band expansion and a high-volume breakout suggest increased near-term volatility.
• RSI hit overbought territory near 75, indicating potential pullback risk in the next 24 hours.
• On-balance volume confirmed the rally, but divergence in the later session hints at weakening buying pressure.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-30, Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.618 and surged to a 24-hour high of $2.773 by 16:00 ET on 2025-10-01, before closing at $2.767. The pair posted a high of $2.773, low of $2.614, and a 24-hour volume of 5,964,155.49 (USDT turnover). Total notional turnover for the period reached $16.48 million.

The price action showed a clear breakout above key resistance levels at $2.74 and $2.75, supported by volume expansion. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged from $2.733 to $2.746, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. A doji formed at $2.753, suggesting indecision. The 15-minute RSI hit overbought levels, while MACD remained positive with a rising histogram, confirming bullish momentum. However, divergence between price and volume in the later hours hints at potential profit-taking.

Bollinger Bands expanded from $2.72–2.76 to $2.74–2.80 as volatility surged, with the close settling near the upper band, suggesting a high-risk overbought condition. The 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line at $2.71–2.72, reinforcing a short-term bullish bias. Fibonacci retracement levels at 61.8% ($2.736) and 78.6% ($2.766) were respected, with price finding support and resistance within these levels.

The 20-day and 50-day moving averages on the daily chart indicate a broader uptrend, with TONUSDT trading above both at $2.75 and $2.73, respectively. The 200-day MA at $2.69 provides a firm baseline. A potential correction toward the 38.2% retracement level at $2.697 could test near-term support. If volume confirms the move above $2.773, a test of $2.82–2.85 may follow. However, a reversal below $2.74 could trigger a retest of $2.70–2.67, aligning with earlier consolidation zones.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent price action suggests a potential strategy of buying on bullish engulfing patterns confirmed by volume expansion and holding for a 3–6-hour period. A backtesting approach could involve entering long positions when the price breaks above a 15-minute 20-period MA and the RSI crosses above 50, with a stop-loss at the recent swing low. Trailing stops could be used as the price moves toward the 78.6% Fibonacci level or Bollinger Band upper limit. This strategy would aim to capture short-term momentum while minimizing exposure to overbought conditions. Historical performance would need to validate the edge, but the current structure supports its potential.