Market Overview: Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-11)

• TONUSDT opened at $2.669 and closed at $2.191 after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of $2.727 and low of $0.554.
• Price action shows a bearish reversal with a breakdown below key support at $2.20, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern.
• MACD and RSI signal oversold conditions near $0.554 and $1.652, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Volatility spiked sharply after 19:00 ET with a massive $3.3M turnover candle at $2.447 before the steep decline.
• Volume surged during the 19:00–21:30 ET window, indicating heightened interest during the selloff.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.669 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.191 on 2025-10-11 at the same time. During the 24-hour period, it reached a high of $2.727 and a low of $0.554. The total traded volume was 65.8 million TON, and the total notional turnover was $131.4 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a clear breakdown from a multi-hour consolidation range between $2.20 and $2.60. The breakdown occurred on heavy volume and was confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern on the candle that closed at $1.652. A key support level at $2.20 was breached after 23:30 ET, triggering further downside. Key resistance levels include $2.25 (38.2% Fibonacci), $2.32 (61.8%), and $2.69 (resistance from earlier highs). A strong bearish doji formed at $1.652, signaling exhaustion in the rally.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below key support levels after 20:00 ET, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages all trended lower, with the price well below the 200-period line, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend is intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish after the breakdown at $2.20, with the histogram expanding in the negative territory. The RSI reached an oversold level near 20, suggesting a short-term rebound could be in the cards, but with no clear sign of a reversal. The indicator remains below 30, indicating continued bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp sell-off from $2.447 to $0.554, with price closing outside the lower band. Volatility has remained elevated since the breakdown. The price currently sits near the lower band, and a bounce back toward the middle band could be imminent. The upper band remains anchored at $2.30–$2.40.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown at $2.20, with the $1.652 candle showing the highest single-volume bar of the day at 6.5 million TON. The massive $3.3M turnover candle at $2.447 suggests strong selling pressure, and the divergence between price and volume post-breakdown indicates continued bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels were respected during the decline. The 38.2% retracement at $2.25 and the 61.8% retracement at $2.32 both failed as price continued lower. A short-term rebound could find resistance at these levels before the next test of $2.10 and $2.00.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and the recent breakdown, a potential backtest could look for entries on a rebound above the 2.10 level with a stop-loss below 2.00. A long trade on a retest of the 2.20 support level could be considered if RSI shows a strong move above 30 and volume declines, indicating buying interest without overbought conditions.