Market Overview for Toncoin/Tether (2025-09-26)

• Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) traded in a tightening range amid moderate volatility, with bearish pressure evident in declining support levels.
• Price action showed a key intraday breakdown below $2.70, testing prior levels with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2.665 serving as a critical floor.
• Momentum shifted from oversold to neutral RSI territory, suggesting possible near-term consolidation or reversal.
• Notional turnover surged during the early ET session, while volume remained balanced without clear divergence from price.

Toncoin/Tether (TONUSDT) opened at $2.757 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $2.77 before closing at $2.667 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. Total traded volume for the 24-hour window was 7.64M units, while notional turnover reached $20.22M. Price action reflected a bearish bias with a breakdown below key psychological support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a bearish continuation with several large red bodies and bearish engulfing patterns, especially around the intraday low of $2.652. A doji formed near $2.66–2.67, indicating indecision after the initial selloff. Key support levels identified were $2.665 (61.8% Fib) and $2.65 (38.2% Fib), with $2.64 acting as a potential stop-loss level if the selloff continues. Resistance levels include $2.701 (recent swing high) and $2.72 (major pivot level).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were converging downward, reflecting bearish momentum. Price stayed below both, suggesting short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, a potential bearish signal for longer-term traders. The 100-period MA remained above the 200-period MA, offering some ambiguity in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed bearish divergence with a negative histogram and a crossover to the bearish side. RSI reached oversold territory (below 30) in the late ET session but failed to produce a strong reversal. Momentum appears to be stabilizing but not yet reversing. For daily traders, the 15-minute RSI crossing back above 40 may signal a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased through the early ET session, expanding the Bollinger Bands, while price remained below the lower band for most of the trading day. This suggests a bearish trend with strong distribution pressure. A retest of the upper band near $2.70–2.72 could indicate a potential reversal point, while a break below the lower band would signal further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff from $2.77 to $2.658, with a large candle on the 15-minute chart at 08:00–08:15 ET. Notional turnover was highest during that period, confirming bearish sentiment. Volume remained balanced after the low, with no clear divergence between price and turnover, suggesting continued bearish pressure without a major shift in sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high at $2.77 to the swing low at $2.65 were $2.72 (23.6%), $2.70 (38.2%), and $2.665 (61.8%). The price found a temporary floor at $2.665, which could be a critical support level to watch in the coming session. A move back above $2.70 would signal a potential bullish retracement, while a break below $2.665 could target the next major support at $2.65.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing patterns and key Fibonacci levels, a backtest strategy could be constructed to short on a break below $2.665 with a stop-loss above $2.70 and a target of $2.64–2.65. The strategy would use the 15-minute RSI as a filter, entering a short only when RSI remains below 30 for at least two consecutive 15-minute periods. A long entry could be triggered on a bullish reversal at $2.70 with RSI crossing above 40 and MACD crossing to the bullish side. This approach combines multiple technical signals to minimize noise and improve entry precision.