Market Overview for Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) – 24-Hour Summary

• Threshold/USDC traded within a narrow range, consolidating between 0.01313 and 0.01359.
• A sharp intraday rally followed by a pullback to 0.01329 suggests mixed sentiment.
• Low volume in the early part of the session contrasts with spikes at 21:30 and 13:45 ET.
• RSI shows no extreme overbought or oversold signals, indicating balanced momentum.
• Price closed near 12:00 ET at 0.01321, down slightly from the prior session close.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01319 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.01359 by 13:45 ET the following day, before closing at 0.01321 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 709,110.5 units, with a notional turnover of $9,402.60 (based on average price). The price showed modest consolidation, with most of the movement occurring in the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action on TUSDC reflected a tight trading range through much of the session, with support forming around the 0.01313–0.01321 level and resistance at 0.01335–0.01359. A key bullish reversal pattern appeared at 19:45 ET, where the candle opened at 0.01336 and closed at 0.01349, forming a strong white candle on high volume. This signaled a short-term reversal, but bearish pressure returned as volume dropped and price retested lower levels in the following hours. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 21:30 ET when the price dropped from 0.01356 to 0.01346 on heavy volume, confirming the shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned for most of the session, indicating low directional bias. By the late afternoon, the 20-period MA began to cross above the 50-period MA, hinting at a potential short-term upward bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sat slightly above the 100-period and 200-period lines, indicating a neutral to bullish bias in the broader context, though not decisively bullish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line oscillated between -0.00001 and 0.00002, staying close to the zero line for most of the session, with a slight positive divergence at the close. RSI remained in the mid-40s to mid-50s range, suggesting balanced buying and selling pressure without signs of overbought or oversold conditions. This indicates that while there was a tentative shift in sentiment toward the end of the session, it was not yet strong enough to trigger a breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a slight expansion in volatility during the afternoon hours, particularly between 15:00 and 19:00 ET, as the price approached the upper band. This period saw several candles touching or crossing the upper band, indicating short-term bullish momentum. However, the bands then re-contracted as the price moved back toward the middle, confirming the lack of sustained directional strength. The price closed near the middle band, suggesting a continuation of consolidation rather than a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was notably low during the early morning hours but spiked at 19:45 ET and 21:30 ET. The 19:45 spike occurred on a bullish candle, reinforcing the upward move, whereas the 21:30 spike coincided with a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming the shift in sentiment. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the highest notional turnover occurring during the 21:30 ET candle at $1,083.00. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the late evening hours, as the price dipped lower despite stable or declining volume, suggesting weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 19:45–21:30 ET swing, the key levels of 0.01346 (38.2%) and 0.01339 (61.8%) were significant. The price found support at the 61.8% level before bouncing slightly. For the larger daily swing from 0.01313 to 0.01359, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.01334, a level the price tested during the late afternoon but failed to hold. These levels are likely to be watched closely in the next 24 hours for signs of further direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying and acting on bullish engulfing patterns on 15-minute charts, holding the position for 24 hours to evaluate returns. Given the observed bullish engulfing pattern at 19:45 ET, a hypothetical long entry would have aligned with the strategy. However, the subsequent bearish engulfing pattern at 21:30 ET would have triggered a sell or short signal. A successful backtest would depend on accurate entry timing and risk management, particularly given the low RSI and moderate volatility observed. The strategy’s viability is likely to be higher in higher-volume pairs with clearer breakout patterns, but TUSDC’s behavior suggests that the strategy could have a moderate edge here, assuming execution discipline.