Market Overview for Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) as of 2025-11-09

Summary
• Price surged from 0.01248 to 0.01262 amid low volume early morning.
• Oversold RSI and low volatility suggest limited momentum for further gains.
• Late-night selloffs pressured price below 0.01245 with high-volume bearish breakdown.
• Turnover spiked during key breakdown and consolidation, signaling possible exhaustion.
• No clear support levels confirmed, but 0.0123–0.01237 appears to be new short-term floor.

Threshold/USDC (TUSDC) opened at 0.01248 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.01262 (12:00 ET), reaching a high of 0.01262 and a low of 0.0123. The 24-hour volume totaled 320,276.8 USDC, with a turnover of approximately $4,000.

The price action shows a sharp reversal after a bearish breakdown in the early hours, with a late-day rebound. Price is now consolidating near a minor resistance level at 0.01262, with no strong volume to confirm a breakout. This suggests that while there may be short-term buying interest, the trend lacks conviction.

The RSI is hovering near oversold levels, which could indicate that a rebound may be due, but the MACD is flattening, pointing to weak momentum. Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, signaling low volatility, with price trading just above the lower band. This setup may suggest a low-probability short-term bounce but could also lead to a continuation of the bearish bias if volume remains muted.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing show 0.01248 as the 50% level, and 0.01262 as a 61.8% retracement, which may act as a temporary ceiling. The 38.2% level at 0.01252 appears to have been tested but not decisively held. These levels may provide psychological support or resistance in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest using a Bearish Engulfing pattern could be relevant given the late-night bearish breakdown observed. By selling after a confirmed Bearish Engulfing candle with increased volume, one might aim to capture the following 3-day downtrend. For this strategy to be effective, we need the following inputs:

1. Ticker: Confirm whether TUSDC is the correct symbol or if it refers to a specific exchange-pair (e.g., TUSD/USDC).
2. Trade Direction: Clarify if the sell signal opens a short or closes a long position.
3. Entry/Exit Price: Confirm whether trades are executed at the next day’s Open or at the Close of the signal day.

These details will define the back-test’s accuracy and allow for a realistic evaluation of the strategy’s viability from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-09.